Guirassy's brace rescues Borussia Dortmund against a gritty Sabah side

Serhou Guirassy did what he does best in Baku: he scored twice to seal a 1-2 win for Borussia Dortmund over Sabah in a Champions League match that the German side controlled for long stretches but that turned out tougher than expected on the scoreboard. Sabah, clearly outmatched against a Bundesliga club, put up a fight with a header that kept the result in doubt for a good while.

The script played out just as expected beforehand: Dortmund came out pressing from the first minute, probing the box relentlessly. Guirassy had already given a warning with a couple of shots that sailed over the bar before the opener arrived in the 9th minute: a left-footed strike from the center of the box made it 0-1. Everything pointed to a quiet afternoon for the visitors, who kept creating chances through Fábio Silva and Felix Nmecha, though neither found the target.

But Sabah refused to fold. From a free kick, Tymoteusz Puchacz whipped in a precise cross and Aden McCarthy rose unmarked to head home from close range, just inside the left post, leveling the score at 1-1 in the 38th minute. With that goal the home side went into the break with the match tied and, at least on paper, something to defend.

Sabah's hopes didn't last long in the second half. Just minutes after the restart, Joey Veerman delivered a cross into the box and Guirassy, again with his left foot, finished at point-blank range to make it 1-2 in the 52nd minute. It was the blow that tilted the match for good: Guirassy's brace proved decisive, and the rest of the second half saw Dortmund manage the lead, bringing on fresh legs in Sabitzer, Jobe Bellingham, Beier, Gadou and Nwaneri, while Sabah pushed down the flanks with Isayev, Mbina, Xaybulayev and Nwachukwu, without seriously testing Gregor Kobel's goal.

The numbers behind the result

Dortmund's dominance shows clearly in the match stats, though Sabah wasn't entirely sidelined in terms of ball control:

According to our post-match xG estimate based on the shots taken in the game, Dortmund generated 3.76 expected goals against 1.56 for Sabah, a gap that confirms the result was no fluke: based on the volume and quality of its chances, the German side deserved to win by more than a single goal.

Before kickoff, our projection gave Borussia Dortmund a 40% chance of winning, against 32% for Sabah and 28% for a draw, with expected total goals of 2.84 (1.34 for the home side and 1.5 for the visitors). The final score lined up with that forecast, and the total goal count (three) landed close to the projection, though the road to get there included more twists than the numbers suggested, with Sabah briefly pulling level.

What the result means in the standings

The win moves Borussia Dortmund up to 11th place in the Champions League league phase, with 6 points from 3 matches played (2 wins, 0 draws, 1 loss). Sabah, meanwhile, sits in 24th place with 3 points from its 3 outings (1 win, 0 draws, 2 losses), a 3-point gap between the two sides in the overall standings. For Dortmund, the result confirms the favorite's role it carried into the match; for Sabah, the first-half resistance and McCarthy's goal stand as the most salvageable takeaways from a night in which, despite the effort, it ultimately gave way to the greater firepower of Guirassy and company.