Hoffenheim seeks its first Europa League goal against a surging Beşiktaş

A loss versus a rout: that's how differently TSG Hoffenheim and Beşiktaş arrive at matchday two of the Europa League league phase. The German club fell 2-0 in its opener and still hasn't found the net in the competition, while the Turkish side opened with a commanding 4-1 win that puts it near the top of the standings. They meet at SNP Arena with very different needs on the table.

Hoffenheim, led by Christian Ilzer, has one match played in the competition so far, no wins, zero goals scored and two conceded. The bigger picture doesn't help either: over its last five matches the club managed just one win, with four losses in that stretch. It's the worse recent run of the two sides, and it shows in the table, where the German club sits 30th out of 36, though with only one match played that position still doesn't say much.

On the other side, Beşiktaş arrives with the wind at its back: it won its first league phase match 4-1, putting it fourth in the overall standings, 3 points clear of Hoffenheim. Over the last five matches, the Turkish side has racked up four wins and just one loss, a recent form that contrasts sharply with that of its upcoming opponent. In this season's Europa League sample, home and away combined, Ernest Poku, Ilhan Fakili and Václav Cerny have scored for Beşiktaş, each with one goal.

The probable lineups

For the home side, the probable eleven (a medium-confidence estimate based on recent matches) would have Oliver Baumann in goal, with Vladimír Coufal, Ozan Kabak, Mats Rots and Albian Hajdari across the back line, Wouter Burger, Leon Avdullahu, Adam Daghim and Bambasé Conté in midfield, and Adam Hlozek alongside Tim Lemperle up front.

Beşiktaş, for its part, would likely field Alexander Nübel in goal; Amir Murillo, Emmanuel Agbadou, Ridvan Yilmaz and Emirhan Topçu across the back line; Salih Özcan, Orkun Kökçü, Václav Cerny, Junior Olaïtan and Leandro Trossard in midfield, and Dusan Vlahovic as the main attacking reference. This lineup is also projected, not confirmed.

What the numbers say before kickoff

Our model shows a tight forecast, with no clear favorite:

The numbers don't show a clear edge for either side: Beşiktaş starts with a slight advantage, but the margin over Hoffenheim is narrow and the draw also carries real weight in the equation. As for expected goals, our own estimate puts the figure at 1.53 for Hoffenheim and 1.64 for Beşiktaş, a combined total of 3.17 that suggests a match with scoring chances at both ends. Worth noting, this is an in-house calculation and not a betting line.

With Hoffenheim desperate to get its first goal and first point in the competition, and Beşiktaş looking to confirm its strong start, SNP Arena hosts a match that could shake up the league phase table considerably.