Houston Dynamo look to end Cincinnati jinx at Shell Energy Stadium

Houston Dynamo FC hosts FC Cincinnati at Shell Energy Stadium with an odd stat hanging over the game: in their last three meetings, the Dynamo have never won. Two victories for the Ohio side and a draw, with a combined score of 6 goals to 4 in the visitors' favor. That history adds an extra layer to an MLS matchup that, on paper, pits a team sitting near the top of the table against one fighting to stay inside the playoff picture.

The Dynamo sit second in the East, with a record of 13 wins, 4 draws and 8 losses in 25 matches, 32 goals scored and 28 allowed. Recent form, though, hasn't quite kept pace: over their last five games they've managed just one win, two draws and two losses, with a loss as their most recent result. At home this MLS season, however, Ben Olsen's side has averaged 1.25 goals scored and only 0.667 allowed per game, keeping a clean sheet in 50% of those matches and showing a tendency to find the net between the 76th and 90th minutes.

Cincinnati, ninth in the table with 32 points from 24 matches (8 wins, 8 draws, 8 losses), arrives with a negative goal difference: 52 goals scored but 59 allowed. Over their last five outings, Pat Noonan's team has also been inconsistent, with one win, two draws and two losses. What's most concerning is what their road numbers show this MLS season: they average 1.5 goals scored but concede 2.92 per game, with no clean sheets in that sample. A defense that, away from home, has struggled quite a bit.

Probable lineups

With moderate confidence, the Dynamo's projected XI would again feature Jonathan Bond in goal, with Lawrence Ennali, Agustín Resch, Lucas Halter and Felipe Andrade across the back line, a midfield made up of Artur, Mateusz Bogusz, Guilherme, Héctor Herrera and Agustín Bouzat, and Duncan McGuire leading the attack. On the visiting side, Cincinnati could line up with Roman Celentano in goal, Miles Robinson and Andrei Chirila in defense, and a crowded midfield with Ender Echenique, Gerardo Valenzuela, Pavel Bucha, Kenji Mboma Dem and Obinna Nwobodo, supporting Kévin Denkey and Evander up top.

What the numbers say

Our model has the Dynamo as favorites, though not by an overwhelming margin over a Cincinnati side that isn't far behind.

This is our own estimate based on the season's trends, not a betting line or a definitive forecast. The 44% in favor of the home side against the visitors' 30% leaves a reasonable margin for an upset, especially considering the draw probability, 26%, isn't negligible either. On top of that, our model puts the chance of the match going over 2.5 goals at 54%, and the chance of both teams scoring at 56%, which lines up with a Cincinnati defense that has struggled on the road and a home attack that tends to show up late in games.

Between the weight of the standings, the recent history working against the Dynamo, and two defenses that don't inspire much confidence, the match at Shell Energy Stadium promises plenty of movement on the scoreboard before the final whistle.