Independiente looks to snap losing skid against Gimnasia Mendoza at Estadio Libertadores de América

Independiente arrives with the urgent need to snap a losing skid, and Gimnasia Mendoza looks like one of the trickier opponents of this early season. The two sides meet at Estadio Libertadores de América in the Argentine Primera División, in group A, where just two points separate them in the standings.

El Rojo has been through a rough patch: three straight losses before finally getting back to winning ways and then closing out its last outing with a draw. Its overall record in the tournament, though, looks sturdier than that slump would suggest: 3 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses in 6 matches, with 6 goals scored and 3 allowed, sitting fifth in group A with 10 points. The team averages 1.88 goals scored per game and has kept a clean sheet in 38 percent of its matches, with one notable quirk: its most productive stretch comes between the 76th and 90th minutes, right when games are decided. Gabriel Ávalos leads the scoring chart with 9 goals, followed by Matías Abaldo with 5.

Gimnasia Mendoza, for its part, comes in with better momentum: three wins in its last five matches, including the two most recent. Its tournament record also looks stronger in the table, sitting third in the group with 12 points thanks to 4 wins, no draws and 2 losses in 6 outings, with 9 goals scored and 5 allowed. Worth watching, though, is its attacking output: the team averages just 0.62 goals per game while conceding 1.76, a contrast that points to a side that struggles defensively but makes the most of its chances, especially early on: its most productive stretch comes between minutes 0 and 15. Agustín Módica tops its scoring chart with 4 goals.

The head to head history between the two clubs isn't extensive either: just 3 matches, with one win for Independiente, two draws and no victories for the Mendoza side, with a goal difference of 4 to 3 in favor of the home team.

Probable lineups

Independiente should field a lineup that blends continuity with a few question marks: Rodrigo Rey in goal, a back line of Facundo Zabala, Kevin Lomónaco, Santiago Arias and Juan Fedorco, a midfield trio of Santiago Montiel, Mateo Pérez Curci and Iván Marcone, and up front the pairing of Gabriel Ávalos and Maximiliano Gutiérrez, with Matías Abaldo rounding out the attacking midfield. This lineup is projected from recent matches, with medium reliability, not a confirmed roster.

Gimnasia Mendoza would likely repeat much of its usual core: César Rigamonti between the posts, a back line of Matías Recalde, Ezequiel Muñoz, Diego Mondino and Juan Franco, a crowded midfield with Facundo Lencioni, Fermín Antonini, Esteban Fernández, Luciano Cingolani and Julián Ceballos, and Agustín Módica as the focal point up top. This too is an estimate, not an official lineup.

What the numbers say

The model tabs Independiente as the favorite, giving it a 54 percent chance of winning, though not by a comfortable margin: a draw sits at 28 percent, and Gimnasia Mendoza holds onto a not insignificant 18 percent as a visitor arriving in better recent form. Our expected goals figures show 1.57 for the home side and 0.80 for the visitors, a combined 2.36 that fits with a low scoring affair: the over 2.5 goals trend sits at just 38 percent, though the both teams to score trend climbs to 63 percent. It's worth noting this is our own estimate based on the season's trends, not a betting house's odds.

With Independiente needing to reassert itself at home and Gimnasia Mendoza looking to extend its upswing, this group A clash promises tension right up to the finish, right in that late stretch where El Rojo tends to turn things up.