Independiente del Valle wins but it's not enough: Flamengo hangs on with 10 men, Arrascaeta seals the tie 1-1

The first leg had ended 2-0 in Flamengo's favor, so a draw would not do for Independiente del Valle: the Ecuadorian side needed a win at the Maracana to have any shot at overturning the tie. They got there only halfway. The team went ahead, played more than half an hour with a man advantage after Jorginho was sent off, and still ended up conceding the equalizer in the 82nd minute. 1-1 was the final score in this Copa Libertadores quarterfinal.

The result leaves Independiente del Valle having won the night on the scoreboard but not on aggregate, since the path to this point included that 2-0 defeat in Ecuador at Flamengo's hands. Tonight's match, though, had merit of its own and ran counter to most of the pre-match expectations: the projections had given Flamengo a 64% chance of winning, 22% for a draw and just 14% for Independiente del Valle, with expected goals set at 2.13 for the home side against 0.92 for the visitors. None of that played out as forecast on the field.

How the scoring unfolded

The first half was even, with Flamengo controlling more of the ball but without much sharpness, until the 30th minute, when Djorkaeff Reasco made it 0-1 with a close-range finish off his right foot. Independiente del Valle went into the break in front, and the lead held.

The second half turned on its head in the 64th minute, when Jorginho picked up a second yellow card for dangerous play and left Flamengo down to 10 men. Shorthanded, the home side had to regroup while Independiente del Valle pushed to extend the lead. They couldn't find the second goal, and in the 82nd minute the equalizer arrived: Giorgian de Arrascaeta, on from the bench, headed home from point-blank range off an unlikely assist from goalkeeper Agustin Rossi. The score stayed at 1-1 the rest of the way.

By the numbers

Despite playing more than half an hour with a man down, Flamengo finished with more possession and more total shots, though Independiente del Valle was sharper in creating danger near the box.

The gap in fouls committed, 13 to 3, tells part of the story too: Flamengo, down a man and needing to win the ball back quickly, was forced to break up plays with fouls. As for the post-match xG based on shot location, Independiente del Valle finished with 1.359 against Flamengo's 1.079, a figure that backs up the idea that the Ecuadorian side didn't just defend well, it created real danger in front of the opposing goal.

What this result means

Flamengo arrived at this tie after eliminating Cruzeiro in the round of 16 (a 1-1 draw away and a 2-1 win at home) and with the 2-0 road win already banked from the first leg against Independiente del Valle. The Ecuadorian club, for its part, had gotten past Deportes Tolima with two wins (1-0 and 3-1) before this quarterfinal matchup. Tonight, at home, Independiente del Valle showed it can hurt Flamengo even when the opponent plays with an extra man for nearly the entire second half, something the pre-match projections did not anticipate. Flamengo, meanwhile, walked away with a point from a match in which it had been the heavy favorite, and did so thanks to a header from Arrascaeta that arrived with the clock working against them.