Instituto suffers but edges past Estudiantes Río Cuarto 2-1 to stay atop Group A

Instituto needed a VAR review and nearly half of the second half to break a scoreless deadlock that wouldn't budge. In the end, the club walked away with a 2-1 win over Estudiantes Río Cuarto at Estadio Monumental Presidente Perón, though the finish had more drama than the scoreline lets on.

The first half ended goalless, with Estudiantes Río Cuarto causing problems out wide and creating clear chances through Gabriel Alanís, who tested the goalkeeper a couple of times without luck. Instituto, for its part, kept pushing crosses into the box and shots from distance that never found the target. It was an even match that wasn't settled until the start of the second half.

In the 48th minute, Giuliano Cerato struck a right-footed shot from outside the box off a free kick that snuck in by the left post. The goal only went up on the board after the referee reviewed it on the monitor: the VAR confirmation didn't come until the 50th minute. Instituto had taken a 1-0 lead.

The home side doubled its advantage in the 72nd minute: Leonel Mosevich, set up by Gustavo Abregú off another free kick, finished with his right foot from the center of the box to make it 2-0. It looked like the knockout blow, but just two minutes later, in the 74th minute, Estudiantes Río Cuarto found a way back in on a scramble inside the box: after two shots were stopped by Instituto's goalkeeper, the ball ended up in the net off Marcos Ledesma, who turned it into his own goal to make it 2-1. The rest of the match, with several substitutions on both sides, produced no further changes on the scoreboard even though stoppage time ran to five minutes.

What the numbers say

The stats point to a match that was more even than the final score suggests. Estudiantes Río Cuarto controlled more of the ball and put more shots on target, while Instituto made the most of the little it had between the posts.

The xG generated during the match, an in-house estimate based on shot location, actually favors the visitors: 1.336 compared to Instituto's 0.626. In other words, Estudiantes Río Cuarto created the more dangerous chances, but Instituto was the side that converted when it mattered.

Pre-match projections had given Instituto a 55% chance of winning, 32% for a draw and just 13% for a visitor's win, with expected goals of 1.27 for the home side and 0.48 for Estudiantes Río Cuarto. The result ended up matching that forecast in terms of the winner, though the way the match played out, with the visitors dominating possession and creating more danger by xG, was far from the comfortable path those numbers suggested.

What the result means

With this win, Instituto moves to 19 points from 9 matches played (6 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses), sitting atop Group A, with Vélez Sarsfield and Defensa y Justicia right behind on 17 points each. Estudiantes Río Cuarto, who don't appear in that Group A table, are left with the feeling of having been the team that caused the most trouble, but with nothing to show for it in the standings.