Unbeaten leaders Inter heavy favorites at 72% as last-place Fiorentina visit

The league leaders host the last-place club, and the numbers leave little room for an upset. Internazionale arrive unbeaten, with 19 points from seven matches, while Fiorentina sit at the bottom with just 4 points and a goal difference of -9. The Serie A clash will be played at the Stadio Giuseppe Meazza and will test whether the Viola's crisis can hold up against the league's best home side.

Inter have yet to taste defeat this season, with a record of 6 wins and 1 draw in 7 matches, scoring 21 goals and conceding 9. Over their last five games they have won four and lost just once, a run that underscores the solidity of Cristian Chivu's side. Fiorentina, meanwhile, have 1 win, 1 draw and 5 losses on the campaign, with 8 goals scored and 17 allowed. Their last five matches brought two wins, one draw and two losses, a recent uptick that does little to disguise their spot at the bottom of the standings.

At home this Serie A season, Inter have averaged 3.745 goals per match while conceding 1.505, with clean sheets in 25% of games, based on a sample of 4 matches; their most productive scoring window falls between the 46th and 60th minutes. Fiorentina, on the road this same season, have averaged 1.657 goals scored and 2.66 conceded per match, with no clean sheets, in a sample of 3 matches, and tend to score between the 16th and 30th minutes. These figures come from a different sample than the overall league record, but they help illustrate the contrast in form between the two sides.

The recent head-to-head also clearly favors Inter: of 8 meetings, they won 5, drew 1 and lost 2, with a goal difference of 13 to 7.

Probable lineups

For Inter, the projected lineup (medium reliability) would have Josep Martínez in goal; Bastoni, Akanji, Bisseck and Carlos Augusto in defense; Barella, Dimarco, Zielinski, Andy Diouf and Çalhanoglu in midfield; and Marcus Thuram leading the attack. For Fiorentina, with a low-reliability projection, David de Gea would start between the posts; Dragusin, Viery, Álex Jiménez, Ranieri and Valde across the back line; Mastantuono, Fagioli, Ndour and Njie in midfield; and Pellegrino up front.

Worth noting: Lautaro Martínez and Marcus Thuram have 4 goals apiece in that home sample for Inter, while for Fiorentina, Franco Mastantuono leads the way on the road with 3 goals.

What the odds say

The favoritism is clear, no way around it: our model gives Inter a 72% chance of winning, compared to just 10% for Fiorentina. Expected goals tell a similar story: 2.6 for Inter versus 0.95 for the visitors, an estimated total of 3.55 goals in the match. This is our own projection, not a betting line, but it lines up with a season-long trend showing 100% of matches going over 2.5 goals and a 67% chance of both teams scoring.

With the league leaders at home and the bottom club trying to halt a slide that has already dropped them to the foot of the table, the match at the Meazza looks like a tall order for Fiorentina from the opening whistle.