Inter Miami blows 3-0 lead, settles for draw against Charlotte FC

Inter Miami CF had the game put away by halftime. The home side was cruising 3-0 at Nu Stadium and looked headed for a comfortable night against Charlotte FC. But the second half told a completely different story: Liel Abada scored twice in five minutes, Rodolfo Aloko popped up in the 89th minute to level things, and what was shaping up to be a rout ended in a 3-3 draw that leaves a bitter taste in MLS.

The match opened with an early scare for the hosts: in the 3rd minute, Liel Abada put the ball in the net, but VAR overturned the goal and the score stayed level. Inter Miami CF didn't take long to respond. In the 13th minute, Ian Fray arrived at the center of the box off a corner kick and finished with his right foot, low and inside the far post, to make it 1-0. The second goal came in the 32nd minute, when Luis Suarez, set up by German Berterame also from a corner, tapped the ball in from close range. And before the break, Rodrigo De Paul extended the lead in the 41st minute with a shot from outside the box, assisted by Telasco Segovia, making it 3-0 at halftime.

The second half flipped the script entirely. Barely a few minutes in, in the 49th minute, Liel Abada pulled one back with a close-range finish off an assist from Tyger Smalls. Five minutes later, in the 54th minute, Abada struck again, this time from outside the box, assisted by Pep Biel, making it 3-2. Charlotte FC had gone from resignation to belief that they could tie it, and they did so in stoppage time: in the 89th minute, Rodolfo Aloko finished from the center of the box to make it 3-3, moments after Tyger Smalls had rattled the post with a shot of his own. In added time, Lionel Messi also hit the post, meaning the deadlock could have broken either way in the closing seconds.

What the numbers say

Inter Miami CF controlled possession and generated more volume of play, but the final score reflected a far more even contest than the first half had suggested.

The shots on target, 5 to 5, already hinted that Charlotte FC wasn't going to go quietly despite the scoreline. According to our estimate based on the game's shots, Inter Miami CF generated 2.44 expected goals compared to 1.99 for Charlotte FC, a gap that confirms the home side's overall edge in the match, even though it wasn't enough to secure all three points.

Before the match, our projection gave Inter Miami CF a 50% chance of winning, 22% for a draw and 28% for an away win, with expected goals of 2.20 for the home side and 1.62 for the visitors, a combined total of 3.82. The final result, with six goals split 3-3, came in very close to that projected total, though the outcome was a draw, the least likely of the three scenarios under that forecast.

What the result means

In the Eastern Conference standings, Inter Miami CF sits in second place with 60 points from 34 games played, while Charlotte FC is fifth with 54, a gap of 6 points between the two sides. One point doesn't change the order much, but for Inter Miami CF it feels like two points dropped after having the game well in hand with a three-goal cushion. For Charlotte FC, on the other hand, the partial comeback from 3-0 down to a draw is the big story of the afternoon, built on Abada's goals and Aloko's late-game intervention.