Ipswich Town host a struggling Fulham side, and history is on the visitors' side

Portman Road plays host to two teams still searching for their competitive edge in this Premier League campaign. Ipswich Town sit 11th with 6 points, while Fulham are bottom of the table in 19th place with just 2. Neither side arrives with much momentum, which makes this matchup a real chance for one of them to snap out of its slump.

Ipswich Town's record so far this season reads 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 losses, with 7 goals scored and 11 conceded. Their last five matches paint an even gloomier picture: just one win against four defeats. Fulham have little to boast about either, with 0 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses in the league, scoring 5 and conceding 8. Still, over their last five outings, Alvaro Arbeloa's side picked up a draw, a win and two more draws, closing out that stretch in better shape than their opponents today.

Some context is worth examining closely. Over a sample of five home and away Premier League matches this season, Ipswich Town are averaging 1.4 goals scored and 2.2 conceded per game, without a single clean sheet in that span, and they tend to do most of their damage between the 16th and 30th minutes. Fulham, in a similar sample, are averaging 1 goal scored and 1.6 conceded per game, with a clean sheet in 20% of those matches, and their preferred scoring window comes early, between the kickoff and the 15th minute. These trends come from a different sample than the full season table, but they offer a sense of how the match might unfold.

A head to head record that favors Fulham

The all time series between these two clubs doesn't do Ipswich any favors either: of the 8 meetings played, Ipswich Town have never won, 2 ended in draws and Fulham took the other 6, outscoring their rivals 18 to 6 across those matches. That's a heavy weight for an Ipswich side that needs to break the pattern sooner rather than later.

Possible lineups

With low confidence since this is an estimate based on recent matches, Ipswich Town could line up with Christian Walton in goal; Dara O'Shea, Issa Diop, Leif Davis and Jacob Greaves across the back line; Abdoul Ouattara, Sasa Lukic, Abdul Fatawu, Julio Enciso and Exequiel Palacios in midfield; and Emersonn leading the attack.

Fulham, also on a probable basis, would likely set up with Bernd Leno between the posts; Timothy Castagne, Antonee Robinson, Calvin Bassey and Joachim Andersen in defense; Oscar Bobb, Josh King, Alex Iwobi, Shea Charles and Sander Berge in midfield; and Gonzalo Garcia up top.

What the numbers say

Our model gives a slight edge to Fulham, though the match still projects as closely contested:

This is our own projection based on this season's trends, not a betting line or a definitive forecast: with 45% for Fulham, a 28% chance of a draw and 27% for Ipswich Town, the gaps are narrow. On top of that, our model puts a 50% probability on the match going over 2.5 goals and a 36% chance that both teams find the net, which tracks with two defenses that have been struggling early this season.

With Ipswich Town eager to halt their recent slide at home and Fulham still chasing their first win of the campaign, Portman Road is set for a match neither side can afford to lose.