Italy survives Turkey scare, wins 3-1 in Nations League

Scamacca broke the deadlock in the 25th minute with a rocket into the top corner, and it looked like Italy would cruise to a comfortable win. But Turkey, which had arrived in Bologna without a single point in the group, refused to go quietly: Aral Simsir equalized in the 60th minute with a point-blank finish that cast doubt on everything Italy had built. The Italian response was immediate and emphatic. Three minutes later, Riccardo Calafiori headed home into the top corner off a cross from Nicolo Barella, and in the 86th minute Francesco Pio Esposito sealed it with a close-range finish by the post. Italy 3, Turkey 1, in a Group A1 UEFA Nations League clash that ended up far tighter than the final score suggests.

The first half had already shown that Turkey wasn't there to make up the numbers. Yunus Akgun and Aral Simsir tested Gianluigi Donnarumma with shots that drew sharp saves from the Italian goalkeeper, and Vincenzo Montella's side earned several corners without converting them into goals. Italy, for its part, was more clinical: Scamacca's goal came on one of the few clear chances Italy created in the first half, following a cross from Giovanni Di Lorenzo.

The stretch that decided it all

The second half opened with Roberto Mancini shaking up the bench, bringing on Michael Kayode, Calafiori, and Esposito before the 56th minute in search of fresh legs up front. The changes didn't prevent Simsir's equalizer in the 60th minute, set up by Eren Elmali, but they go some way toward explaining the near-instant response: just three minutes later, Calafiori, one of the fresh faces off the bench, rose to head home the 2-1. Esposito, another substitute, added the finishing touch in stoppage time with a finish the Turkish goalkeeper could do nothing about.

Turkey had a couple more chances through Salih Ozcan and Kerem Akturkoglu, but by then the result was already decided.

The numbers behind the match

Possession favored the visitors, who also moved the ball more and won more corners. Italy, on the other hand, made the most of whatever it created, however little.

Based on our post-match xG estimate calculated from the shots taken in the game, Italy generated 2.58 expected goals to Turkey's 1.77, a gap that lines up with how the final score played out, even though the match itself felt much tighter than those numbers suggest.

What the preview said versus what happened on the field

Before kickoff we projected an Italian win at 69% probability, a draw at 20%, and just 11% for Turkey, with expected goals of 2.27 for Italy and 0.80 for Turkey. The final result ended up matching that forecast, though the path there included a scare that wasn't in the script: Turkey's equalizer midway through the second half forced Italy to come from behind rather than simply manage the lead.

What the result means in the standings

With this win Italy moves to 7 points in Group A1, sitting in second place, while Turkey remains without a single point through four matches played and with a deeply negative goal difference. The gap between the two sides in the table stands at 7 points, a fairly accurate reflection of what separated them over the course of the match, even though on the field Turkey put up more of a fight than its place in the standings would suggest.