Jabbari steals it late as FC Cincinnati beats a dominant Philadelphia Union

A point blank finish from Ayoub Jabbari in the 69th minute was enough to earn FC Cincinnati all three points against Philadelphia Union. 1-0 was the final score at TQL Stadium, though the scoreline only tells part of the story: Union was the team that did most of the asking over 90 minutes, and still came away empty handed.

The first half saw Philadelphia Union pushing from the opening whistle. Within seconds the visitors had already created two chances: a shot from Ben Bender that was blocked, and three minutes later, a header from Bruno Damiani that grazed the crossbar off a Jovan Lukic assist. The pattern repeated throughout the opening 45: corner kicks, crosses from Kai Wagner and shots from Nathan Harriel, Frankie Westfield and Quinn Sullivan that FC Cincinnati goalkeeper Roman Celentano kept turning away one after another. Union closed out the first half with a header from Neil Pierre that was also stopped right under the crossbar. Still, the score stayed level at the break.

The second half followed much the same script: in the 52nd minute, Damiani crashed a header off the crossbar from another Wagner cross. Philadelphia Union kept knocking, but the door wouldn't budge. That's when FC Cincinnati, already making substitutions (Evander had come on at the start of the second half), started to look more dangerous. Kenji Mboma Dem and Evander himself had shots go just wide before the decisive play arrived.

The goal that broke the deadlock

In the 69th minute, with Ayoub Jabbari and Ender Echenique already on the field following FC Cincinnati's substitutions, the play that decided the match unfolded: Evander struck a left footed shot from inside the box, and the Union goalkeeper managed to parry it, but the rebound fell right to Jabbari, who finished from close range with his right foot into the right side of the net. 1-0, and TQL Stadium erupted.

Philadelphia Union kept trying until the final whistle. There was a late stretch with several consecutive corner kicks, a header from Harriel that drifted wide left, and, deep into stoppage time (six minutes added by the fourth official), a shot from Cavan Sullivan that sailed over the bar. It wasn't enough to find an equalizer.

The numbers don't lie about who controlled the game

The stats back up what played out on the field: Philadelphia Union was the sharper team for most of the match, but lacked precision when it mattered most.

Philadelphia Union nearly doubled FC Cincinnati's shot total and tripled it in corner kicks. The gap also shows up in our post match expected goals estimate based on the shots taken in the match: 1.973 for Union compared to 0.918 for FC Cincinnati. That figure backs up the sense that the visitors created more and better chances, but soccer is decided by goals, and the only one that went in belonged to Jabbari.

The result also runs counter to what was projected before kickoff: in our preview we gave Philadelphia Union a 44% chance to win, against 33% for FC Cincinnati and 23% for a draw, with combined expected goals of 3.84 (2.05 for Union and 1.79 for the home side). A final score with just one goal, and going the way of the less favored side according to that projection, makes clear that soccer doesn't always follow the numbers from the preview.

In the Eastern Conference standings, the result leaves both teams tightly bunched: FC Cincinnati and Philadelphia Union are separated by just 1 point, with Union in sixth place on 47 points and FC Cincinnati in seventh with 46, each having played 33 matches. A win that, regardless of how much territory the visitors controlled, keeps FC Cincinnati within striking distance of the top of its conference.