Jasinski strikes in stoppage time to snatch a draw for San Jose against Real Salt Lake

There were barely two minutes left when Jack Jasinski showed up from the right side of the box and nudged the ball home by the left post. That finish, in the 93rd minute, stripped Real Salt Lake of a win they already had all but sealed and left the score at 1-1 at America First Field in MLS action.

The match had been locked up for most of the first half, goalless and with more attempts than genuine clarity. Real Salt Lake finally broke through in the 78th minute: Luc De Fougerolles finished with his right foot from the right side of the box, low and tight to the left post, after an assist from Juan Manuel Sanabria that came from a well-worked free kick. The goal looked like it would be enough for the home side to pocket all three points, even with De Fougerolles going off injured shortly after and making way for DeAndre Yedlin. But San Jose Earthquakes refused to fold, and in stoppage time, with five extra minutes signaled by the fourth official, Jasinski struck the equalizer that split the points.

Chances that hinted at drama early

The final result could have looked very different given the chances both sides squandered. As early as the 10th minute, De Fougerolles had rattled the right post with a shot off a cross from Saba Lobjanidze. San Jose had its moments too: Ousseni Bouda tested the home goal from inside the box several times without luck, and Reid Roberts, in the 71st minute, grazed the crossbar with a header that could have put the visitors ahead well before the late equalizer. The game went back and forth throughout, with shots whistling just wide at both ends.

What the numbers say

Possession was split almost evenly, but Real Salt Lake was sharper when it came to testing the opposing goal.

That gap of 8 shots on target to just 2 also shows up in the post-match xG estimate: by our calculation, Real Salt Lake generated 2.45 expected goals to San Jose Earthquakes' 1.48. It's a measure of what each team produced with its shots, not a projection, but it helps explain why the home side felt the draw was a bit hard to swallow despite being the more incisive team.

Going into the match, our projection gave Real Salt Lake a 38% chance of winning, 27% for a draw and 35% for San Jose Earthquakes, with combined expected goals of 3.09. The result ended up matching the least likely of the three scenarios, though not by much: a draw that, given how the game played out, wasn't far off the numbers we had going in before kickoff.

What the point leaves behind

In the Western Conference, Real Salt Lake sits 11th with 33 points from 29 matches played (9 wins, 6 draws, 14 losses), while San Jose Earthquakes sits fifth with 47 points from the same number of appearances (13 wins, 8 draws, 8 losses). The gap between the two in the standings is 14 points, something the match itself didn't reflect: Real Salt Lake was the better side in terms of volume and clear chances, but Jasinski's stoppage-time goal was a reminder that in MLS, no match is over until the final whistle.