João Félix Lifts Al Nassr Past NEOM After Cristiano Ronaldo Misses Penalty

Cristiano Ronaldo had the easiest goal of the night at his feet and put it wide. But Al Nassr didn't need his name on the scoresheet to collect all three points: a João Félix goal in the 60th minute was enough to get past NEOM 1-0 at Al-Awwal Park, in a Saudi league match that proved far trickier than it should have been.

The script seemed written from the opening whistle. Al Nassr dominated possession and strung together chance after chance without finding the net: João Félix tried his luck from outside the box in the 5th minute, Sadio Mané had a warning shot in the 19th, and Cristiano himself rattled the crossbar from point blank range right at the start of the second half. NEOM, meanwhile, sat back and defended, occasionally poking forward through Saïd Benrahma, who tested his aim on several occasions without success.

The match turned uphill right when it looked like it would be settled easily. Just before the break, in the 47th minute, VAR reviewed a foul by Mohammed Al Dossary on João Félix inside the box and awarded a penalty to Al Nassr. Cristiano Ronaldo stepped up to take it and sent it narrowly wide, squandering the chance to put his side ahead before halftime. The first half ended level at nil-nil despite the home side's dominance.

The Goal That Broke the Deadlock

The second half followed the same pattern: Al Nassr pushed, NEOM held firm. Until the 60th minute, when the reward finally arrived. João Félix received a pass from Ângelo and finished with his right foot from outside the area, through the middle of the goal, for the 1-0 that would stand as the final score. NEOM had its best response shortly after, when Alexandre Lacazette headed a shot off the right post following a cross from Giorgos Masouras, but there were no further scares for the home goal.

The match statistics reflect fairly accurately what played out on the field: an Al Nassr side that controlled the game for all 90 minutes, racked up far more shots, and finished with a clear edge in possession.

Looking at the estimated xG based on the match's shots, Al Nassr generated 2.16 against NEOM's 0.85, a gap that confirms the dominance wasn't just about possession but also about dangerous chances, even if the finishing didn't fully match the control.

Heading into the match, our model gave Al Nassr a 67% chance of winning, against a 21% chance of a draw and a 12% chance of a NEOM win, with expected goals of 2.23 for the home side and 0.89 for the visitors. The final score, a tight 1-0, ended up falling short of those numbers, especially since Cristiano's missed penalty kept the match tighter than the home side's dominance suggested it should have been.

What the Standings Show

With this result, Al Nassr holds onto third place in the standings with 22 points through 9 matches played, 6 points behind NEOM, sitting sixth with 16 points after 10 matches. A win that wasn't pretty but kept them in the hunt near the top, while NEOM continues needing to pick up points gradually to close the gap to the upper reaches of the table.