Last-place Juárez hosts Atlante with both sides desperate for points

With 23 goals conceded so far this tournament and just four points from 12 matches, Juárez arrives at Estadio Olímpico Benito Juárez sitting dead last in the Liga MX table, 18th place. Across the field will be Atlante, two spots higher but with barely enough cushion to avoid looking over its shoulder. This is a matchup between two teams that need points badly, even if for different reasons.

Juárez's record this tournament is grim: of 12 matches played, the club has won just one, drawn one and lost ten, scoring 8 goals while conceding 31. Its last five matches haven't offered much relief either: one win, one draw and three losses. Atlante, meanwhile, has put together 2 wins, 5 draws and 5 losses this tournament, with 13 goals scored and 19 allowed, and its last five matches also show one win, one draw and three losses, with a defeat as the most recent result.

It's also worth looking at how each team performs based on home or away status in the 2026 Liga MX season, though that sample stands apart and shouldn't be blended with the overall tournament record. Playing at home, Juárez averages 0.84 goals scored and 1.84 allowed per match across six games, with clean sheets in just 17 percent of them, and its most productive scoring window falls between the 31st and 45th minutes. Atlante, on the road, averages 1 goal scored and 1.66 allowed across six matches, without a single clean sheet, and tends to score more often between the 46th and 60th minutes.

In the overall standings, Atlante sits 16th with 11 points and Juárez is 18th with just 4; the gap between the two sides heading into this match is 7 points.

The head-to-head record and what to expect on the field

The history between these two clubs has been fairly evenly spread: in 8 meetings, Juárez has won 3, there's been 1 draw and Atlante has won 4, with the home side scoring 9 goals and the visitors 11 across those matches.

For Juárez, the name to watch up front is Óscar Estupiñán, who tops the scoring chart in the home sample with 6 goals, ahead of José Luis Rodríguez and Rodrigo Dourado, who have one each. In Gustavo Lema's likely starting eleven, based on recent matches, Estupiñán looks like a fixture alongside goalkeeper Sebastián Jurado and defender Gilberto Sepúlveda, both ever-present across the last six matches.

On Atlante's side, Luis Calzadilla leads the away scoring chart with 3 goals, followed by Luis Puente and Eugenio Pizzuto with 2 each. Miguel Herrera's probable lineup shows a remarkably settled core: Óscar Jiménez, Eduardo Tercero, Walter Portales, Aaron Quirós, Martín Sarrafiore, Pizzuto, Calzadilla and Jhojan Julio have all started in the six most recent matches, pointing to a well-defined base despite the mixed results.

What the numbers say

Our model gives Juárez a 42 percent chance of winning, 28 percent for a draw and 30 percent for Atlante. Those figures, despite the huge gap in the standings, don't point to a clear favorite: the home side has a slight edge, but the margin over the visitors is thin.

This is our own estimate drawn from season trends, not a definitive forecast or a betting line. Combined expected goals sit around 2.86, and our trend model puts the probability of more than 2.5 goals at 33 percent and the chance of both teams scoring at 44 percent, numbers that line up with two defenses that rarely keep a clean sheet.

With Juárez desperate to pick up points by any means necessary and Atlante looking to snap a stretch of inconsistent results, the match at Estadio Olímpico Benito Juárez should be closer than the gap in the standings suggests.