Winless Juárez hosts favored Tigres, still searching for its first point in Liga MX

Eight games, eight losses and a -19 goal difference. That is the story of Juárez's season so far, as the club hosts Tigres this weekend at Estadio Olímpico Benito Juárez in a Liga MX clash where the home side has nothing left to lose, having already lost just about everything.

Juárez's record this tournament is bleak: 0 wins, 0 draws and 8 losses in 8 matches, with 4 goals scored and 23 allowed. The club sits in 18th place, dead last in the table, and its recent form only confirms the slump: five losses in its last five games. At home in the 2026 Liga MX season (a sample of 4 matches), Juárez averages just 0.5 goals scored per game while conceding 2.5, without a single clean sheet. Óscar Estupiñán leads the team's scoring in that span with 3 goals.

Tigres isn't exactly thriving either, but its situation looks very different. With 1 win, 4 draws and 3 losses in 8 matches (9 goals for, 11 against), the club sits 14th, seven points clear of Juárez in the standings. Over its last five outings, Tigres has posted one loss, one win and three draws, a stretch defined more by tight results than dominant performances. On the road this season, in a sample of 5 matches, Tigres averages 0.8 goals scored and 1.6 allowed, with a 40% clean sheet rate. Rodrigo Aguirre and Juan Brunetta share the scoring lead in that sample with 3 goals apiece.

What the history says

The two sides have met 8 times, with a clear edge for Tigres: 4 wins to Juárez's 2, plus 2 draws, and an aggregate score of 6-4 in favor of the felines.

Probable lineups

With medium confidence, Juárez's likely starting eleven (based on recent lineups) would have Sebastián Jurado in goal, a back line of Jesús Murillo, Javier Aquino, Francisco Nevárez and Gilberto Sepúlveda, a midfield of Denzell García, José Luis Rodríguez, Jairo Torres and Rodrigo Dourado, and Óscar Estupiñán as the lone striker up top.

For Tigres, with high confidence, the projected lineup has Nahuel Guzmán between the posts, a defense of Alan Franco, Jesús Garza and Joaquim, a crowded midfield featuring Diego Lainez, Juan Brunetta, Fernando Gorriarán, Rômulo and Diego Sánchez, and Rodrigo Aguirre leading the line.

The odds

Our model, built on the season's trends, gives Tigres a clear edge despite its recent inconsistency:

This is our own projection, not a betting line. Expected goals back up that read too: 1.08 for Juárez versus 1.79 for Tigres, a combined total of 2.87 that lines up with the 55% probability our model assigns to the match going over 2.5 goals. The odds of both teams scoring, however, sit lower at 30%, suggesting a game in which Juárez could once again fail to find the net.

The numbers tell the story: Juárez is chasing its first bit of joy this tournament against a Tigres side that, while far from its best form, arrives with far more room for error. Estadio Benito Juárez will have the final say.