Kidderminster hosts Doncaster in the FA Cup riding a five-game winning streak

Kidderminster Harriers host Doncaster Rovers at Aggborough Stadium in a matchup that needs no extra hype: the FA Cup always carries that built-in appeal of watching a lower-division side take on a Football League club, and here the form guide gives the hosts an extra reason to dream of an upset.

While Doncaster Rovers arrive in patchy form, Kidderminster come in hot: five wins in their last five matches. There's no way to spin that number down, though it's worth noting it covers only that short sample and not the club's full season record. Doncaster, meanwhile, have been up and down: across their last five matches they've picked up one win, two draws and two losses, a run that hardly screams clear favorite despite playing in a higher division.

Looking at the FA Cup's own trends offers some interesting context, though it shouldn't be conflated with current form. Kidderminster, in the 2023 edition of the competition, both home and away, failed to keep a clean sheet in any match of that sample and did most of their scoring between the 31st and 45th minutes. Doncaster, for their part, in this season's FA Cup, across three matches, average 2 goals scored and 1.667 conceded per game, also without a clean sheet, and tend to look more dangerous between the 46th and 60th minutes. In those three matches, Owen Bailey has scored twice, while Matthew Pearson and Jack Senior have one goal apiece.

Probable lineups

On the home side, Kidderminster Harriers' probable lineup looks fairly settled: Emeka Obi, Richard Faakye, Josh Robinson, Charlie Cooper and Reece Devine across the back, Owen Evans, George Walker, David Davis and Brayden Johnson in midfield, and Ryley Reynolds alongside Kieren Donnelly up top. Confidence in this projected XI is high, with nearly every player having started their last few matches.

Doncaster Rovers arrive with more uncertainty over their likely setup, with low confidence based on their recent matches. Thimothée Lo-Tutala would start in goal, with Jamie Sterry, Seán Grehan and Jay McGrath in defense, Jack Senior, Owen Bailey, Darren Robinson, Robbie Gotts and George Broadbent as midfield options, and Hakeeb Adelakun alongside Brandon Hanlan leading the attack.

What the numbers say

Our model has Kidderminster as the favorite, though it's far from ruling out Doncaster. The figures:

The 53% for Kidderminster reflects their current form more than any gaping gap in quality, and the 27% chance of a draw makes clear the model isn't ruling out a tight result. These figures come from a combined estimated xG of 2.69 goals, hinting at a game with chances for both sides. Worth repeating: this is our own estimate based on the season's trends, not a betting line or a locked-in prediction.

With Kidderminster rolling and Doncaster searching for consistency, Aggborough Stadium could end up hosting a far more even contest than the paper suggests in this round of the FA Cup.