Kimmich and Karl lead Bayern to another win as Mainz 05 only manages a late consolation goal

Bayern Munich walked away from MEWA Arena with a 2-1 win that could have been far more lopsided if not for a couple of VAR decisions and Mainz 05's resistance for much of the match. Joshua Kimmich opened the scoring with a stunning strike from outside the box, and Lennart Karl sealed it in the second half, before Phillip Tietz added some late drama with a header that arrived far too late to matter.

The match unfolded exactly as expected: Bayern controlling possession, Mainz 05 sitting back and waiting for its chance. The payoff for the visitors didn't take long to arrive. In the 13th minute, Joshua Kimmich picked up the ball outside the box, received a pass from Harry Kane, and fired a right-footed shot into the top corner, unstoppable for any goalkeeper. It was the first blow in an afternoon when Mainz 05 would barely touch the ball.

The home side had a moment of hope before halftime that ended in frustration. In the 39th minute, Lee Jae-Sung scored, but VAR waved it off for offside, and four minutes later a second review also confirmed there was no goal. Two consecutive setbacks for a team that needed some breathing room. To make matters worse, Manuel Neuer got injured in that stretch and had to be replaced by Jonas Urbig before the break.

In the second half, Bayern wasted no time extending the lead. In the 56th minute, Lennart Karl once again received a pass from Harry Kane and finished with his right foot from the center of the box to make it 0-2. The match then settled into a stretch of total control for the visitors, who created chance after chance without needing to push too hard. Mainz 05, with substitutes Phillip Tietz, Paul Nebel, Benedict Hollerbach, and Rael Nakuzola, tried to find a way in through the flanks, but struggled mightily to create anything clear-cut in the opposing box.

Stoppage time brought the only moment of joy for the home crowd: in the 91st minute, Phillip Tietz headed in a cross from Benedict Hollerbach to make it a final 1-2. Far too late to change anything but the final score of the loss.

What the numbers say

The stats clearly reflect the gap between the two sides. Bayern dominated possession, piled up shots, and created far more clear-cut chances.

The estimated xG generated in the match, calculated after the fact based on shot locations, is just as telling: 3.04 for Bayern compared to just 0.67 for Mainz 05. A number that confirms the scoreline could have been far more lopsided.

Our preview published before kickoff had Bayern as the heavy favorite, giving them a 73% chance of winning compared to 11% for Mainz 05 and 16% for a draw, with expected goals of 2.87 for the visitors against 1.12 for the home side. The final result ended up tracking that projection fairly closely, even with one fewer Bayern goal than the model forecast.

Where the table stands

With this result, Bayern Munich stays at the top of the Bundesliga with 21 points from 9 matches played, while Mainz 05 remains in 10th place with 10 points after the same number of matches. The gap between the two in the standings is 11 points, a fairly accurate reflection of what played out on the field over the 94 minutes at MEWA Arena.