Cologne host last-place Mönchengladbach, still searching for a first Bundesliga win

The fact that a match between 13th place and dead last in the Bundesliga can generate real interest says a lot about how this season's table looks. 1. FC Köln host Borussia Mönchengladbach at RheinEnergieSTADION with both sides still chasing the kind of start that hasn't quite materialized, though the gap between them at the bottom of the standings is bigger than it might appear.

Köln arrive with a record of one win, one draw and two losses in four Bundesliga matches, scoring 6 goals and conceding 9. Over their last five matches they've picked up two wins, one draw and two losses, an up-and-down stretch that has them sitting 13th. Mönchengladbach, by contrast, are going through a far rougher start: four matches, four losses, no wins or draws to speak of, with 6 goals scored and 16 conceded. Over their last five matches they managed just one win, with four losses in the rest. That gap shows up in the standings: Köln sit 13th, Mönchengladbach are rock bottom in 18th, and there are 4 points separating the two.

It's worth looking at another sample too: 2026 Bundesliga trends playing at home and on the road over each team's last four matches, which paints a different picture than the season-long record. There, Köln average 1.5 goals scored and 2.25 conceded per match, with no clean sheets, and tend to score more in the final stretch, between the 76th and 90th minutes. Mönchengladbach, in that same kind of sample, also average 1.5 goals scored but concede 4 per match, and their most productive scoring window is actually the start of matches, between minutes 0 and 15. These numbers point to two teams with real defensive issues, though they shouldn't be confused with what the league table shows.

The head-to-head record doesn't point to a clear favorite either: in 8 previous meetings, Köln have won 2, there have been 5 draws and Mönchengladbach have won 1, with 16 goals for Köln against 14 for Mönchengladbach across that history.

Probable lineups

For Köln, the projected lineup (medium reliability) would keep Marvin Schwäbe in goal, with Jahmai Simpson-Pusey, Alessio Castro-Montes, Luka Lochoshvili and Gideon Mensah across the back, Tom Krauß, Saïd El Mala, Linton Maina, Marius Bülter and Ísak Jóhannesson in midfield, and Ragnar Ache leading the attack. On the visitors' side, with lower reliability in the projection, the lineup could feature Moritz Nicolas between the posts, Kevin Diks and Ko Itakura in defense, a midfield of Hugo Bolin, Philipp Sander, Lukas Ullrich, Joe Scally, Kevin Stöger, Wael Mohya and Robin Hack, and Franck Honorat up front.

What the numbers say before kickoff

Our model shows a tight match, with a slight lean toward the home side:

These are fairly evenly spread percentages: Köln's 40% falls short of being a commanding favorite, and Mönchengladbach's 34% makes clear the visitors have real chances despite their poor start. This is our own estimate, not a betting line. The expected goals figures back up that reading: 1.65 for Köln and 1.5 for Mönchengladbach, a combined 3.15 that lines up with the league trends pointing to an 88% probability of more than 2.5 goals and a 50% chance both teams find the net.

With two defenses that have been struggling and forwards capable of scoring, RheinEnergieSTADION has all the makings of an open match. Köln need to snap their uneven run at home, Mönchengladbach simply need to start picking up points.