Fiorentina, bottom of the table and in crisis, host favored Como at the Artemio Franchi

Fiorentina arrive at this match as the de facto bottom side, just above Venezia, with 4 points from 6 matches and a goal difference of -7 that sums up the season pretty well. Across the pitch stands a Como team that, without being one of Serie A's big clubs, has done its homework: they sit seventh with 11 points and just one defeat so far this campaign. The venue is the Artemio Franchi, and what the home side is playing for is, quite simply, to stop looking up at the table from the bottom.

Fiorentina's record in the league speaks for itself: 1 win, 1 draw and 4 losses, with 7 goals scored and 14 conceded. Over their last five matches they have picked up two wins, one draw and two losses, an uneven run that has yet to settle into any clear identity. Como, meanwhile, come in with 3 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss in the league (9 goals for, 6 against), though their last five matches have also been mixed: two wins, one draw and two losses, recent stumbles that temper the optimism somewhat.

There are a couple of pieces of context worth separating from the league results overall. Playing at home in Serie A this season, in a small sample of just 3 matches, Fiorentina average 0.66 goals per game and concede 2, without a single clean sheet; their most productive scoring window falls between the 46th and 60th minutes, and Franco Mastantuono stands out as their top scorer in that sample, with 3 goals. Como, for their part, as visitors and also in a limited sample (4 matches), average 1.76 goals scored and 1.25 conceded, with their best stretch coming between the 16th and 30th minutes, and scoring spread between Assane Diao, Martin Baturina and Tasos Douvikas, with 2 goals apiece.

The head to head record doesn't favor the Tuscans either: in 5 meetings, Como have won 3, Fiorentina 2, with no draws, and a combined scoreline of 6 to 8 in favor of the Lombards.

Probable lineups

With low reliability, Paolo Vanoli's Fiorentina would likely field David de Gea in goal with a back line of Radu Dragusin, Valde, Alex Jimenez, Luca Ranieri and Viery, while the midfield would feature Franco Mastantuono, Cher Ndour, Nicolo Fagioli and Christ Inao Oulai, with Mateo Pellegrino leading the attack. This lineup is inferred from recent matches, not an official confirmation.

Cesc Fabregas's Como, with a medium reliability estimate, would likely line up with Jean Butez in goal; Jacobo Ramon, Trevoh Chalobah, Yan Couto and Alex Valle on defense; Assane Diao, Martin Baturina, Lucas da Cunha and Maximo Perrone in midfield, and Nico Paz alongside Tasos Douvikas up top.

What the numbers say

Our model gives Como the edge as favorites, with a 47% win probability compared to Fiorentina's 25%, though the draw remains a very live option at 28%. This is no foregone conclusion: there's reasonable room for any outcome. These are our own estimates based on the season's trends, not sportsbook odds. On top of that, the trend points to a 58% probability of the match going over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance both teams score, which lines up with a combined xG of 2.73.

With Fiorentina needing points to pull away from the bottom and a Como side settled in the upper-middle of the table, the Artemio Franchi has the makings of an open match, the kind that stays unresolved until the final whistle.