Unbeaten, third-place Roma host struggling Genoa as 68% favorites

Roma still hasn't lost a game in Serie A this season, and now host a Genoa side at the Stadio Olimpico that has dropped four of its last six matches in the league. The contrast in needs is obvious, but the schedule doesn't care about logic: this is soccer, and Genoa arrive with a bit of confidence after winning their most recent match.

Gian Piero Gasperini's side sit third with 14 points, built on 4 wins and 2 draws in 6 matches, with no losses at all. The numbers are solid: 14 goals scored and just 3 allowed. That said, over their last five matches Roma have won only once, drawn three times and lost once, a stretch of draws that contrasts with their strong start. Daniele De Rossi's Genoa, meanwhile, sit 17th with 4 points, with 1 win, 1 draw and 4 losses, and a sharply negative goal difference (5 scored, 11 allowed). Over their last five matches they've been inconsistent, with two wins, a draw and two losses, a mixed run that hasn't settled into any clear trend. The gap between the two sides stands at 10 points in the standings.

It's also worth looking at how each side performs in more specific samples, even if they can't be directly compared to full-season numbers. Playing at home in Serie A this season, across three matches, Roma average 2.66 goals scored per game and concede 1, with a 33% clean sheet rate. Their most productive stretch has come between the 76th and 90th minutes, and Donyell Malen leads their scoring in that sample with 6 goals, followed by Niccolò Pisilli and Matías Soulé with 2 each. Genoa, in a six-match sample combining home and away games, average just 0.83 goals scored and concede 1.83 per game, without a single clean sheet. They tend to score earlier, within the first 15 minutes, and Milutin Osmajic tops their scoring chart in that sample with 3 goals.

The head-to-head record also lines up with Roma's status as favorites: across 8 meetings, Roma have won 4, there have been 2 draws, and Genoa have won 2, with a goal tally of 11 to 9 in Roma's favor.

Probable lineups

For this match, Roma could field, in an estimated lineup, Mile Svilar in goal, with Gianluca Mancini, Mario Hermoso and Evan Ndicka across the back, Manu Koné, Wesley, Nahuel Molina and Bryan Cristante in midfield, and an attacking trio made up of Paulo Dybala, Donyell Malen and Matías Soulé. Dybala and Malen have started in all six of the recent matches analyzed, suggesting continuity in that part of the lineup.

On Genoa's side, the probable lineup would have Justin Bijlow between the posts, a back four of Leo Østigård, Alessandro Marcandalli, Johan Vásquez and Kingsley Ehizibue (with Sebastian Otoa as a defensive alternative), Morten Frendrup, Mikael Ellertsson and Djibril Sow in midfield, and Tommaso Baldanzi alongside Milutin Osmajic up top. These are probable lineups, not confirmed ones, built from each team's recent starting elevens.

What the numbers say

Our model gives Roma a 68% probability of winning, while a draw comes in at 21% and a Genoa win at just 11%. It's a clear edge, though not an overwhelming one: Genoa still have a real chance of pulling off an upset or at least grabbing a point.

Those expected goals figures are our own estimate, not an official measurement, and they point to a match with a clear offensive edge for the home side. The broader trends back that up too: there's an estimated 75% probability of the match going over 2.5 goals and a 67% chance both teams score.

With an unbeaten Roma looking to close the gap at the top of the table and a Genoa side that needs points to pull away from the bottom of the standings, this match at the Stadio Olimpico promises goals from one side and resistance from the other. Serie A once again pits two very different realities against each other.