Lanús grinds out 2-1 win over Estudiantes despite seeing less of the ball

Lanús won at home with less of the ball, fewer passes, and far fewer shots, but clinical finishing was enough to secure all three points: 2-1 over Estudiantes de La Plata at Ciudad de Lanús, in a Argentina Primera División match in which the "Granate" struck first and held on until the final whistle.

The home side went ahead early, in the 12th minute, when Gonzalo Lobos headed in an Eduardo Salvio cross from close range to make it 1-0. Before that goal, Estudiantes had already given notice with a shot from Adolfo Gaich that hit the post, and the visitors kept creating chances throughout the first half without finding an equalizer. The score stood at that narrow margin heading into the break.

In the second half, Lanús doubled its lead from the penalty spot: in the 55th minute, Lucas Besozzi was fouled inside the box by Gastón Benedetti, and the referee pointed to the spot. Eduardo Salvio made no mistake, converting down the middle to make it 2-0 in the 59th minute. The match looked settled, but Estudiantes refused to fold, continuing to push down the flanks and win corner kicks. That persistence paid off in the 83rd minute, when Leandro González Pírez arrived at the edge of the six-yard box to finish left-footed off a corner and make it 2-1. There was no time left for anything more, even though six minutes of stoppage time were added and Estudiantes kept searching for the equalizer until the end.

A match of reversed numbers

What stands out about the result is that the overall stats clearly favored the visitors. Estudiantes de La Plata controlled the ball, piled up shots, and looked more threatening in the opposing box, but ran into Lanús's efficiency in the two plays that truly mattered.

The expected goals numbers generated in the match (an in-house estimate based on shot location, not a prediction) reflect that gap: 1.397 for Lanús against 1.947 for Estudiantes. In other words, the visiting side created more total danger, but lacked the finishing touch or the luck to turn it into more goals.

That contrast also stands in sharp opposition to the pre-match projections. Lanús had been given a 31 percent chance of winning, with a 36 percent chance of a draw and a 33 percent chance of an Estudiantes win, with expected goals of 0.89 for the home side and 0.92 for the visitors, for a total of 1.81. The final result, with Lanús winning 2-1 despite trailing in almost every measure of play, ended up defying that balanced forecast.

What the result means

With the win, Lanús moves to 16 points in its group, while Estudiantes de La Plata stays at 10, leaving a six-point gap between the two sides in Group A's standings. The match also produced yellow cards for Leandro González Pírez, Sasha Marcich, Eric Meza, and Yoshan Valois, along with a forced first-half substitution for Felipe Peña Biafore, who went off injured and was replaced by Agustín Medina. Estudiantes, for its part, leaves Ciudad de Lanús with the feeling of having created more than enough to take something from the game, but without a reward on the scoreboard.