LDU Quito hosts Mirassol in Copa Libertadores round of 16 with everything up for grabs

LDU Quito and Mirassol face off tonight for a spot in the quarterfinals of the Copa Libertadores, with the second leg of their round of 16 tie wide open after a 1-1 draw in the first leg in Brazil. The match will be played at Estadio Rodrigo Paz Delgado, a fortress the Ecuadorian club has often leaned on at this stage of the competition.

The road to this point makes clear the tie is dead even: in the first leg, playing away from home, LDU Quito came away with a 1-1 draw against Mirassol, who had home advantage. That result means both sides need to go out and find a win tonight, though each arrives in very different form heading into the second leg.

How the teams arrive

LDU Quito boasts a solid record in the tournament: out of 7 matches played, they won 4, drew 1 and lost 2, scoring 9 goals and conceding 6. Over their last five outings they've picked up three wins, one draw and one loss, a run that underscores their strength at home. The Ecuadorian club averages 2.333 goals scored per game and just 0.667 conceded, keeping a clean sheet in 67% of their matches, and they also tend to come alive late, with their most productive scoring window falling between the 76th and 90th minutes. Deyverson and Yerlin Quinonez are the club's top scorers with two goals apiece, followed by Michael Estrada.

Mirassol, on the other hand, is going through a rockier stretch. They also sport a 4-1-2 record in their 7 tournament matches, with 8 goals scored and 5 allowed, but their recent form is a concern: over their last five matches they haven't won any, with two draws and three losses. The Brazilian side averages 0.667 goals scored per game and concedes 1.333, without a single clean sheet in any of their matches in the tournament. Their best scoring window comes right at the start, between minutes 0 and 15. Eduardo tops their scoring chart with two goals, followed by Lucas Oliveira and Joao Victor.

Head to head

The head-to-head record between the two sides is tight: in 3 matches played, LDU Quito won 1, there was 1 draw and Mirassol won the other, with 3 goals scored by each side. A history that points to another close encounter.

Probable lineups

With medium reliability, LDU Quito could field Gonzalo Valle in goal, a back line made up of Ricardo Ade, Jose Carabali, Josue Cuero and Luis Segovia, with Jesus Pretell, Yerlin Quinonez and Fernando Cornejo in midfield, and Janner Corozo alongside Michael Estrada up front.

Mirassol, also in an estimated probable lineup, would send out Walter between the posts, with Reinaldo, Joao Victor, Igor Formiga and Gabriel Knesowitsch on defense, Denilson, Eduardo and Wallisson in midfield, and an attacking trio of Bruno Santos, Edson Carioca and Fernandinho.

Match probabilities

The model clearly favors LDU Quito, who also come in backed by their expected goals numbers: an in-house estimate of 1.83 versus 0.67 for Mirassol, in a projected total of 2.5 goals for the match. These figures aren't betting odds, but rather a read on the season's trends, and in this case they point to a real edge for the home side, though soccer, and the result of the first leg, mean Mirassol has no choice but to push from the opening whistle.

With the tie still up for grabs and home advantage on their side, LDU Quito enters as the favorite to seal their spot at the Rodrigo Paz Delgado, though Mirassol, in need of results, has no option but to come out swinging from the first minute.