Lech Poznan seeks its first point against a Bayer Leverkusen side with a perfect record

Lech Poznan arrives bruised after falling 4-0 in its league phase debut in the Europa League, and now hosts a Bayer 04 Leverkusen side at Enea Stadion that opened with a 2-0 win and a clean sheet. They sit at opposite ends of the table after just one matchday, and this clash gives the Polish club a chance to right the ship before the gap becomes harder to close.

The opening defeat left Lech Poznan with a record of 0 wins, 0 draws and 1 loss in the competition, with 0 goals scored and 4 conceded. In recent form, counting the last five matches across all competitions, the club has racked up three wins and two losses, a sign that Niels Frederiksen's side is not in freefall despite the continental setback. Bayer 04 Leverkusen, on the other hand, has a perfect record in the competition so far (1 win, 0 draws, 0 losses, 2 goals scored and none conceded) and arrives on the back of four wins and a draw in its last five matches, with no losses in that span.

In the overall league phase standings the two clubs sit at opposite extremes: Bayer 04 Leverkusen is in 8th place with 3 points, while Lech Poznan sits at the bottom of the table in 35th with none, a gap of 3 points between the two sides heading into this matchup. Worth noting: with just one match played by each team, this table still says little about the real level of either squad.

Looking at trends from this same Europa League campaign in the 2026 season (a sample of just one match per team, home and away), Lech Poznan did not keep a clean sheet and scored more often in the opening 15 minutes, while Bayer 04 Leverkusen kept its goal intact 100% of the time in that sample and also showed its best scoring window between minute 0 and 15. Facundo Medina stands out as Bayer 04 Leverkusen's top scorer in that sample, with one goal.

Probable lineups

For Lech Poznan, the estimated lineup has Mateusz Lis between the posts, with Wojciech Monka, Michal Gurgul, Joel Pereira and Mateusz Skrzypczak across the back line. In midfield, expect Pablo Rodriguez, Radoslaw Murawski, Allahyar Sayyadmanesh and Patrik Walemark, with Mikael Ishak and Filip Jagiello up top. The reliability of this lineup is high, based on recent data.

For Bayer 04 Leverkusen, with medium reliability, the projected XI features Mark Flekken in goal; Edmond Tapsoba, Miguel Gutierrez, Facundo Medina and Jarell Quansah on defense; Aleix Garcia, Ibrahim Maza, Afonso Moreira, Moussa Diaby and Equi Fernandez in midfield; and Patrik Schick leading the attack.

What the numbers say

Our model calculates the following probabilities for this match:

The percentages are tight, with a slight lean toward Bayer 04 Leverkusen, but Lech Poznan is far from out of the equation. As for expected goals, our own estimate puts the hosts at 1.59 and the visitors at 1.76, for a projected total of 3.35 goals, a match that, by this calculation, should see chances created by both sides. Worth repeating: this is EnPelotas' own estimate, not a betting line or a definitive forecast.

With Lech Poznan needing to collect its first point or its first win in the competition and Bayer 04 Leverkusen looking to keep its perfect start intact, Enea Stadion has all the ingredients for a matchup that looks even on paper, even if the stories behind each bench could not be more different.