Leverkusen, perfect in the Europa League, hosts a Marseille side still searching for its first point

Three for three on one side, zero for three on the other. When Bayer 04 Leverkusen hosts Marseille at the BayArena in the league phase of the Europa League, the competition's best attack will meet its worst defensive record in the overall standings. Rarely does a matchup make so clear, before kickoff, which team is riding the momentum.

Leverkusen has not just won all three of its matches in the competition, it has done so without conceding a single goal, posting 8 goals for and 0 against in the tournament. Over its last five matches across all competitions, the picture is a bit more mixed, with three wins and two losses in that span. Still, in this season's Europa League, whether at home or on the road, the German side is averaging 2.667 goals scored per match and has yet to concede in those three outings, with the stretch between the 31st and 45th minutes standing out as its most productive window. Patrik Schick and Jonas Hofmann, with two goals apiece in that stretch, are the standout names behind that strong start.

On the other side, Marseille is going through a rough patch in the competition: 0 wins in 3 matches, with 1 goal for and 6 against in the tournament. Over its last five matches, again across all competitions, the French club posted three wins and two losses, a run that stands in sharp contrast to what it has shown specifically in this Europa League. In that same three-match sample in the competition, Marseille is averaging just 0.333 goals scored per match while conceding 2 on average, without a single clean sheet. Keyliane Abdallah is, for now, its only recorded scorer in that stretch.

The overall standings confirm the gap between the two sides: Leverkusen sits in third place with 9 points, while Marseille is at the bottom of the table in 34th, also having played 3 matches but without a single win. The gap between the two in the standings stands at 9 points.

Probable lineups

On the home side, with low confidence according to the projection, the lineup could feature names like Mark Flekken in goal, the center-back pairing of Edmond Tapsoba and Jarell Quansah, Facundo Medina and Miguel Gutierrez on the flanks, Aleix Garcia and Equi Fernandez in midfield, and Patrik Schick leading the attack. For Marseille, with medium confidence, the projected lineup includes Jeffrey de Lange in goal, a back line with Emerson, Nayef Aguerd, Timothy Weah and CJ Egan-Riley, and Amine Gouiri up front, supported by names like Igor Paixao, Himad Abdelli and Amine Harit in midfield. In both cases these are projected lineups based on recent matches, not confirmed squads.

What do the numbers say?

Our model gives a clear, though not overwhelming, edge to the home side:

The 57% figure for Leverkusen reflects what it has shown in the competition so far, but it is far from a foregone conclusion: there's a 22% chance of a draw and 21% for the visitors, leaving Marseille some room to maneuver. This is an in-house EnPelotas estimate, not a betting odds. Among the additional trends, the probability of over 2.5 goals sits at 33%, matching the both-teams-to-score rate, two figures that don't point to a particularly open scoreline.

With Leverkusen unbeaten and yet to concede in the competition, and Marseille still chasing its first point, the match at the BayArena shapes up as a test of just how far the home side can stretch its perfect start.