Leverkusen hosts a struggling Stuttgart with only a slim edge as favorite

Bayer 04 Leverkusen hosts VfB Stuttgart at BayArena carrying the favorite tag, though the numbers make clear nothing is settled. It's matchday 8 of the Bundesliga, and what's at stake is staying close to the pack at the top, where just seven points separate fourth place from fifteenth.

Leverkusen comes in fourth with 4 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses so far this season, with 16 goals scored and 12 allowed. Over its last five matches the club has racked up four wins and just one loss, a run that keeps it among the best in the table. Stuttgart, meanwhile, sits in 15th with a record of 2 wins, no draws and 5 losses, having scored 10 goals and conceded 13. Over its last five outings it has two wins, one draw and two defeats, an uneven run that explains its place in the lower half.

One figure worth examining closely: playing at home in this same Bundesliga season, Leverkusen averages 2.66 goals scored and just 0.327 allowed over its last three home matches, with clean sheets in 67% of them. Patrik Schick stands out as the team's top scorer in that span, with 6 goals. Stuttgart, for its part, playing on the road in this same competition and season, averages 0.997 goals scored and 1.995 allowed over four matches, with clean sheets in only 25% of them; Ermedin Demirovic leads that sample with 3 goals. These are different snapshots from what the overall tournament record shows, but they help frame the context for each team away from or at home.

The head to head record doesn't clear things up much either: in 8 matches, Leverkusen has 2 wins, Stuttgart has 2, and there have been 4 draws, with the home side scoring 14 goals and the visitors 17 in that span.

Likely lineups

As a low confidence estimate drawn from recent matches, Leverkusen could start with Mark Flekken in goal, a back line of Edmond Tapsoba, Miguel Gutierrez, Facundo Medina, Jarell Quansah and Lucas Vazquez, a midfield of Aleix Garcia, Afonso Moreira, Ibrahim Maza and Equi Fernandez, and Patrik Schick leading the attack. For Stuttgart, the likely lineup would have Dennis Seimen in goal, a defense of Ramon Hendriks, Jeff Chabot, Maximilian Mittelstadt and Josha Vagnoman, a midfield of Angelo Stiller, Deniz Undav, Bilal El Khannouss, Jamie Leweling and Chris Fuhrich, with Ermedin Demirovic up front.

What the numbers say before kickoff

Our model estimates the probabilities for this match as follows:

The 49% figure for Leverkusen makes it the favorite, but not by a wide margin: a draw and an away win combined carry more weight than the home win alone. Expected goals back up that same even on scoreline, uneven in substance reading: 1.91 for Leverkusen against 1.35 for Stuttgart, offered as our own estimate and not as a betting line. On top of that, there's a 58% probability of more than 2.5 goals in the match, and a 75% chance both teams find the net.

With a Leverkusen side defending its place among the leaders and a Stuttgart team that needs points to avoid drifting further away from the pack, BayArena has the makings of a match with goals at both ends.