Levski Sofia and AEK Athens Share the Points in a Scoreless Thriller

Levski Sofia and AEK Athens played out a scoreless draw at Vasil Levski National Stadium, a result that left mixed feelings since the scoreline didn't reflect just how many chances both sides created over the 90 minutes.

End-to-end action with no reward

From the opening whistle it was clear this wouldn't be a cagey affair. Just four minutes in, Serginho tried his luck with his left foot from outside the box after a pass from Aldair, though the ball drifted wide of the right post. AEK answered quickly and had the clearest chance of the first half in the 19th minute, when Luka Jovic rattled the crossbar after a defense-splitting pass from Lovro Majer.

Levski Sofia kept pressing through Everton Bala, who tested the opposing goalkeeper more than once, including two saved shots in the 37th and 39th minutes, plus a low, hard strike from Mehdi El Moubarik that was kept out at ground level. The first half ended scoreless despite the constant back and forth.

In the second half, Levski Sofia held the initiative with attempts from Reinaldo and Maicon, while AEK Athens looked to Razvan Marin and, after coming on, Barnabas Varga, who replaced Jovic in the 56th minute. Neither goalkeeper was truly beaten despite the volume of shots, and the match fizzled out down the stretch with more fouls than clear chances, as neither team could break the deadlock.

The numbers behind the match

The stats confirm just how even this contest was, with Levski Sofia having a slight edge in possession and shots, while AEK Athens created fewer chances but made them count, as shown by Jovic's clear opportunity.

Based on an in-house estimate calculated from shot location data, Levski Sofia generated 1.413 expected goals compared to AEK Athens' 1.275, a minimal gap that backs up just how tight this game was and helps explain why, despite 15 and 12 shots respectively, neither side found the net.

Far from the projections

Our model's preview had made Levski Sofia the clear favorite, giving them a 63% chance of victory against just 12% for AEK Athens and a 25% chance of a draw. The model also projected 1.75 expected goals for the home side and 0.63 for the visitors, for a combined total of 2.38 goals. Reality played out very differently: the Bulgarian side couldn't live up to its favorite tag, and AEK Athens, far from folding, held firm throughout and settled for a draw that, based on the match's own numbers, was hardly a surprise.

What the result means

Levski Sofia is left with the feeling of having squandered home advantage and the statistical backing it carried into the match, while AEK Athens can be satisfied with a point on the road against an opponent that had been given a clear edge beforehand. With three shots on target apiece and missed chances at both ends, the draw at Vasil Levski National Stadium ended up being a fair reflection of just how contested the match was on the field.