Levski Sofia looks to break its curse against Salzburg in the Europa League

The Vasil Levski National Stadium hosts a clash with the flavor of unfinished business: Levski Sofia has never beaten Salzburg. In the two previous meetings between these sides, the Austrians came away with the win both times and did not even concede a goal to the Bulgarian club along the way (2-0 on aggregate). Now they meet again in the Europa League with a recent run of form that, at least on paper, once again favors the visitors.

Levski Sofia arrives with three wins, a draw and a loss in its last five matches, a stretch that includes that early stumble but has been trending upward as the games have gone by. At home, meanwhile, the club is riding a strong stretch in the 2026 season: over its last four home matches it has averaged 1.5 goals scored and has not conceded a single one, keeping a clean sheet in 100% of those games. That sample does not come from this competition, but it points to the solidity the team has shown on its own turf. Reinaldo stands out as the offensive leader in that stretch, with three goals, and tends to strike between the 46th and 60th minutes.

Salzburg, for its part, comes in red hot: four wins and a draw in its last five matches, with no losses in that span. However, when you zoom in specifically on its away form in the 2025 Europa League season, the picture looks quite different: over its last four road matches in the competition it has conceded an average of 2.5 goals per game and has not managed a single clean sheet, though it has still found the net, with Yorbe Vertessen as its most decisive player, scoring three goals in that stretch and tending to strike before halftime, between the 31st and 45th minutes.

The probable lineups

On the Bulgarian side, the lineup is hard to call: the reliability of the projection is low and no field player has clearly held down a starting spot over the last six matches, though Juan Esteban Perea Sánchez and Armstrong Oko-Flex stand out as the names with the most continuity up front, likely joined by Reinaldo in attack.

Salzburg has a more settled probable eleven, with medium reliability: Christian Zawieschitzky in goal, a back line with Nikolas Veratschnig, Dominik Schmid, Kévin Boma and Valentin Zabransky, a midfield featuring Bartosz Mazurek, Edmund Baidoo, Abubakr Barry, Yorbe Vertessen and Sota Kitano, and Haris Tabakovic as the reference point up top, a starter in all six of the most recent matches used as the sample.

What the numbers say before kickoff

Our model projects a tight match, with no clear favorite:

With Levski Sofia at 36%, Salzburg at 33% and a draw at 31%, all three outcomes are essentially neck and neck, something also reflected in the expected goals: 1.25 for the home side against 1.20 for the visitors, for a combined total of 2.45. These are our own estimates based on the season's trends, not betting odds or a firm prediction. Along the same lines, the probability of the match going over 2.5 goals sits at 38%, matching the probability of both teams scoring.

With that balance in the numbers and a head to head record that so far only smiles on Salzburg, the match at the Vasil Levski National Stadium has all the ingredients to be decided by the fine details: a turnover at just the wrong moment, a flash of brilliance from Vertessen or Reinaldo, or that Bulgarian knack for not conceding at home being put to the test against a rival that has not been winning comfortably on the road lately.