Levski Sofia hosts a struggling Jagiellonia in a key Europa League clash

The Vasil Levski National Stadium hosts this Europa League matchup between two teams still trying to find their footing in the league phase: Levski Sofia and Jagiellonia Białystok each have just four points and need a result to avoid falling behind in the overall standings.

Levski Sofia comes in with a record of one win, one draw and one loss so far in the tournament, with three goals scored and three conceded. But looking only at the last five matches across all competitions, the Bulgarian side is unbeaten, with three wins and two draws in that span, a run that gives them some confidence heading into this home game. In this season's Europa League, home and away combined, the team coached by Julio Velázquez is averaging one goal scored and one allowed per game across three matches, without a single clean sheet, and tends to find the net between the 31st and 45th minutes. Reinaldo, with two goals in that stretch, and Everton Bala stand out as the main attacking threats.

Jagiellonia Białystok, on the other hand, carries a tougher record in the competition: one win and two losses in three matches, with four goals scored and six conceded. Recent form, however, has turned around: after starting with two defeats, the team reeled off three straight wins in its last five games. Across its three Europa League matches this season, the Polish side is averaging 1.333 goals scored and 2 allowed, with no clean sheets, and tends to do its damage in the first 15 minutes. Kajetan Szmyt, Kamil Józwiak and Ousmane Sow share the scoring load with one goal each in that sample.

In the overall tournament standings, both teams sit close together: Levski Sofia has 4 points from 3 matches played and Jagiellonia Białystok has 3, just 1 point behind. With only three matches played, the table still says little about each squad's true level, but it does confirm that neither side can afford to give away points.

Possible lineups

For Levski Sofia, the probable lineup (an estimate of low reliability, based on recent matches) would have Svetoslav Vutsov in goal, with a back line of Kristian Dimitrov, Christian Makoun, Maicon and Aldair. In midfield, Everton Bala, Mehdi El Moubarik, Marko Grujic and Mazire Soula would line up, with Reinaldo and Serginho forming the attacking duo.

For Jagiellonia Białystok, the projected eleven would have Slawomir Abramowicz in net, protected by Rodrigo Conceição, Dusan Stojinovic, Bernardo Vital, Yuki Kobayashi and Guilherme Montóia on defense. Jesús Imaz, Taras Romanczuk and Anders Klynge would split midfield duties, with Ousmane Sow and Kajetan Szmyt up top.

What the numbers say before kickoff

Our model, based on this season's trends, points to a match with a slight edge for the home side but no overwhelming favorite:

The 52% share for Levski Sofia looks like the most likely outcome, though the draw at 29% isn't far behind, making clear there's no clear favorite here. Our model's expected goals (an in-house estimate, not an official figure) point to 1.52 for the home side and 0.85 for the visitors, a combined 2.37 that lines up with a 67% probability of the match going over 2.5 goals. The chance of both teams scoring sits at 44%, below the halfway mark. All of this is a projection, not a betting line or a closed prediction.

With the standings this tight and neither team showing clear defensive solidity in the competition so far, the match in Sofia promises plenty of action on the scoreboard before it's settled who gets the most out of this matchday.