Lillestrøm and Real Sociedad chase first Europa League win

Two teams still searching for their first win in this stage of the Europa League meet at Arasen Stadion. Lillestrøm and Real Sociedad are even on points, too: one sits above the other with 1 point from 2 games and the same negative goal difference. Neither can afford another slip if they want to start climbing the competition's overall table.

Lillestrøm have a draw and a loss so far in the competition, with 2 goals scored and 3 conceded. Over their last five matches in all competitions, they've managed just one win, two draws and two losses, a run that ends with a draw as their most recent result. Real Sociedad arrive with the identical record in the tournament (one draw, one loss, 2 goals for and 3 against), but with better form lately: three wins, one draw and one loss in their last five outings, closing with a victory.

It's worth separating that tournament data from another figure drawn from a different sample: in this season's Europa League, both home and away, neither Lillestrøm nor Real Sociedad have managed to keep a clean sheet in either of their two matches so far. The Norwegian side tends to score late, between the 76th and 90th minutes, with Thomas Lehne Olsen as their main scoring threat in that window. The Basque side, meanwhile, tends to strike between the 46th and 60th minutes, with Sergio Gómez and Beñat Turrientes sharing the goals.

In the overall standings, both clubs sit near the bottom, separated by Hapoel Be'er Sheva but in practically the same spot: with only two matchdays played, the table still says little about the real level of either squad.

Probable lineups

Lillestrøm look set to field Pontus Dahlberg in goal behind a back line of Ruben Gabrielsen, Yaw Paintsil, Lars Ranger and Sander Foss, with Gustav Nyheim and Ylldren Ibrahimaj regulars in midfield and Vá paired with Fredrik Gulbrandsen up front. This lineup is projected from recent matches, with medium reliability.

Real Sociedad, with a lower-confidence estimate, could line up with Álex Remiro in goal, a back line of Jon Martín, Mamadou Sarr and Sergio Gómez, a midfield of Carlos Soler, Ander Barrenetxea, Yangel Herrera and Gonçalo Guedes, and Mikel Oyarzabal alongside Luka Sucic leading the attack.

What the numbers say

Our model, built on this season's trends, sees a tight match with a slight lean toward the home side:

The expected goals, also an in-house estimate, back up that reading: 1.65 for Lillestrøm against 1.29 for Real Sociedad, with a combined total of 2.93 that points to a match with chances for both sides. These figures suggest a slight home advantage, without either side standing clearly above the other. It's worth clarifying that this is our own projection and not a betting line.

With both clubs needing their first win in the group stage, the match at Arasen Stadion looks like a real opportunity for either side to start pulling away from the bottom of the table.