Liverpool and Manchester City both unbeaten heading into Anfield, but with very different records

Anfield hosts this weekend the only team in the Premier League yet to taste defeat, and it does so with an unbeaten run of its own that, while less emphatic in goals, remains just as intact. Liverpool has not lost all season; neither has Manchester City, but the two unbeaten streaks tell very different stories. City's comes with a perfect record of wins.

The numbers tell the story in the table: City sits top with 15 points from 5 games played, a record of 5 wins, 0 draws and 0 losses, and a goal difference of plus 8 (13 scored, 5 conceded). Liverpool, seventh with 9 points, is also unbeaten in its league record this season (2 wins, 3 draws, 0 losses), though with less firepower: 7 goals scored and 4 conceded across those same 5 matches. The gap between the two sides in the standings stands at 6 points.

Recent form only widens that gap. Over their last five matches, City has reeled off five straight wins; Liverpool, meanwhile, has four wins and a draw in that same stretch. Both clubs remain without a loss, but City is doing it by winning everything in sight.

Looking at offensive output in this season's Premier League both home and away (a sample of 5 matches in each case, separate from the overall season record), City averages 2.6 goals scored per game and 1 conceded, with clean sheets in 40 percent of matches; Liverpool sits at 1.4 goals scored and 0.8 conceded, with clean sheets in 60 percent of matches. Both teams share the 46th to 60th minute window as their most productive scoring stretch. In that same sample, Erling Haaland has scored 5 goals and Alexander Isak 4, the top scorers for each squad.

What the head to head says

Recent history between the two sides does not favor Liverpool: of 8 meetings, City has won 4, Liverpool 2, with 2 draws, and a combined scoreline of 8 to 15 in the visitors' favor.

Likely lineups

Liverpool's probable XI, projected with high confidence based on recent matches, would have Alisson Becker in goal, a back line of Ronald Araujo, Jeremy Jacquet, Milos Kerkez and Virgil van Dijk, a midfield of Alexis Mac Allister, Dominik Szoboszlai, Florian Wirtz, Cody Gakpo and Bradley Barcola, with Alexander Isak leading the attack.

For Manchester City, with medium confidence in the projection, the lineup would likely feature Gianluigi Donnarumma in goal, a back line of Ruben Dias, Marc Guehi, Josko Gvardiol, Matheus Nunes and Abdukodir Khusanov, a midfield of Rayan Cherki, Antoine Semenyo, Elliot Anderson and Enzo Fernandez, with Erling Haaland up front.

What the numbers say before kickoff

EnPelotas' model (an in house estimate, not a betting line) makes City the favorite at 44 percent, though Liverpool is not far behind: the 29 percent for a home win and 27 percent for a draw paint a closer contest than the table alone would suggest. Expected goals back up that read: 1.34 for Liverpool against 1.67 for City, an estimated total of 3.01 goals. The underlying trends point the same way, with a 50 percent chance of more than 2.5 goals and an 80 percent chance both teams find the net.

With both unbeaten records on the line and City's attacking firepower as the chief threat, Anfield has all the makings of a back and forth battle.