Liverpool and Nottingham Forest Share the Points in Thrilling 2-2 Draw at Anfield

Liverpool held the ball for 69.6% of the match, but it was Nottingham Forest that tested Alisson Becker more often. In the end, it finished 2-2 at Anfield, a point that feels light for the home side and heavy for the visitors, who left with the sense they deserved more.

The game opened with Nottingham Forest unsettling a Liverpool side that controlled possession without finding gaps. The visitors took the lead in the 23rd minute: Dan Ndoye finished with his right foot from inside the box after an assist from Morgan Gibbs-White, and the 0-1 stunned Anfield. Eight minutes later, the stadium thought it had witnessed the equalizer when Florian Wirtz found the back of the net, but VAR ruled it out and the score stayed unchanged until halftime.

In the second half, Liverpool's pressure finally paid off. Cody Gakpo whipped in a cross that Alexander Isak turned home from close range in the 59th minute to make it 1-1. The joy was short lived: in the 67th minute, Alisson brought down Neco Williams for a penalty and picked up a yellow card, and two minutes later Gibbs-White converted from the spot to put Nottingham Forest back in front, 1-2. The match looked to be heading toward an away win until, in the 81st minute, Víctor Muñoz appeared on the right flank to beat Matz Sels with an assist from Wirtz, sealing the final 2-2. The score held despite five minutes of stoppage time.

What the Numbers Say

Liverpool's territorial dominance didn't translate into clear-cut chances. The Anfield side racked up far more possession and passes, but it was Nottingham Forest that produced the more dangerous situations.

That gap of four big chances for Nottingham Forest against just one for Liverpool also shows up in the post-match xG calculated from the shots taken: 2.85 for the visitors versus 1.46 for Liverpool. In other words, based on the quality of the chances created, the result could easily have tilted even further in Nottingham Forest's favor.

The contrast with our preview is striking. Before kickoff we projected a 51% chance of a Liverpool win, 26% for a draw, and just 23% for Nottingham Forest, with expected goals of 1.76 for the home side and 1.13 for the visitors. Reality ended up looking more like the least likely of the three scenarios: a draw in which, on top of that, Nottingham Forest was the team that generated more clear chances and more xG.

What It Means for the Table

With this result, Liverpool sits on 2 points from 2 matches played, the product of two draws, still without a win or a loss. Nottingham Forest stays on 1 point from 2 games, following a loss and this draw. The gap between the two sides in the standings is just 1 point, which makes sense given that the Premier League is still in its early rounds and the table doesn't yet say much about each squad's real level.

Anfield was left with the feeling of a back and forth match, one that involved VAR, a penalty that swung the scoreline, and a draw that, based on what the game showed, wasn't an unfair split of the points.