Liverpool and Nottingham Forest chase first win of the season at Anfield

Anfield opens its doors for a Premier League clash in which neither side arrives with the start it dreamed of. Liverpool drew their opener and Nottingham Forest lost theirs, so both teams will be looking for their first win of the season in front of the home crowd.

Liverpool sit 10th with just one match played: a draw in which they scored 2 goals and conceded 2. That's a small sample, but it's worth looking at the team's last five matches too, where they've picked up one win, two draws and two losses. It's an inconsistent run for a side averaging 2 goals scored and 2 conceded per game, without a clean sheet in that stretch. Their most productive scoring window has come between the 46th and 60th minutes. Dominik Szoboszlai and Cody Gakpo are, for now, the team's top scorers, with one goal apiece.

Across the way, Nottingham Forest find themselves in a tighter spot: they lost their only match so far (0 goals scored, 1 conceded) and sit 15th. Their form over the last five games doesn't inspire much confidence either, two draws and three losses, with no wins. The team hasn't scored yet in this competition, and when they have found the net historically, it's tended to come in the first 15 minutes of the match. With those numbers, Forest's main job at Anfield will be to avoid conceding first, then look for ways to create danger going forward.

In the table, just a single point separates the two sides, though it's worth not jumping to conclusions: with only one match played by each, the standings still say little about the real level of either squad.

What the head-to-head record says

The two sides have met eight times, with the edge going to Liverpool: 4 wins to Nottingham Forest's 3, and one draw. The goal split has also been close, 9 for the home side to 8 for the away side, which confirms these meetings tend not to be tight, low-scoring affairs.

Possible lineups

With the caveat that this is a projected XI, drawn from recent matches and with low reliability, Liverpool could field Alisson Becker in goal, with Jeremie Frimpong, Milos Kerkez and Virgil van Dijk in defense, Dominik Szoboszlai, Florian Wirtz, Rio Ngumoha, Ryan Gravenberch and Cody Gakpo in midfield, and Alexander Isak leading the attack.

Nottingham Forest, also on an estimated basis, could line up with Matz Sels in goal, Nikola Milenkovic, Jair Cunha and Morato in defense, Neco Williams, Nicolas Dominguez, Elliot Anderson and Omari Hutchinson in midfield, and Igor Jesus, Chris Wood and Morgan Gibbs-White up front.

Odds

The model makes Liverpool moderate favorites, though not overwhelmingly so: they barely clear half the probability, and a draw comes up roughly one time in four. The expected goals also point to a match with room for both sides: 1.76 for Liverpool against 1.13 for Nottingham Forest, for an estimated total of 2.89 goals. These figures come from our own estimate, based on the season's trends, and shouldn't be read as betting odds or a firm prediction.

With both teams in need of a win, Anfield could be the stage where one of them finally starts to turn its season around.