Liverpool and Atlético Madrid open Champions League play at Anfield with no room for error

Anfield returns to the Champions League stage with a heavyweight clash: Liverpool hosts Atlético Madrid in a matchup that, based on recent history between the two clubs, has never been a formality. The game falls in the Champions League's league phase, and with both teams still sitting on zero points in the overall standings, a win here counts double for getting off to a strong start.

Liverpool arrives unbeaten in its last five matches, though with more draws than blowouts: three ties and two wins in that short sample. It's not an overwhelming run, but it's not a worrying one either. As the home side in this same Champions League campaign, over six matches this season, the Anfield outfit is averaging 2.5 goals scored and 1.333 conceded, with half of those games ending in clean sheets. Dominik Szoboszlai stands out as the headline name in that sample with five goals, followed by Alexis Mac Allister and Hugo Ekitiké with three apiece.

Atlético Madrid comes in with better recent form: three wins, one draw and just one loss in its last five. However, as a road team in this season's Champions League, over eight matches, the numbers call for caution: the club concedes more than it scores (1.625 goals for versus 2.125 against) and has kept a clean sheet in only 13% of those games. Julián Álvarez is by far the top scorer in that sample with ten goals, followed by Alexander Sørloth and Marcos Llorente.

In the overall league phase table, no points are on the board yet for either side: neither Liverpool nor Atlético has played a previous match in this edition, so whatever position you see today is purely provisional and doesn't reflect actual form.

What the head-to-head says

The two clubs have met eight times, with a slight edge for Liverpool: four wins to Atlético's three and one draw, with the English side scoring 13 goals to the Madrid club's 11. It's a tight history, the kind that doesn't get settled easily.

Possible lineups

Liverpool's likely starting eleven, with medium reliability based on recent-match projections, would have Alisson in goal, a back line of Van Dijk, Jacquet, Kerkez and Frimpong, a midfield of Gakpo, Szoboszlai, Wirtz, Mac Allister and Víctor Muñoz, and Alexander Isak leading the line up top.

For Atlético, with low reliability in this estimate, the probable lineup would feature Oblak in goal, a back four of Hancko, Grimaldo, Le Normand and Pubill, a crowded midfield with Lookman, Barrios, Giuliano Simeone, Hjulmand and Koke, and Lee Kang-In as the spearhead.

What the numbers say

Our model has Liverpool as the favorite, though without an overwhelming margin:

A 51% figure for Liverpool against 25% for Atlético makes clear there's a favorite, but the 24% chance of a draw is a reminder the gap isn't huge. This is our own projection drawn from the season's trends, not a betting line or a locked-in result. On top of that, our model also sees a high likelihood of goals: a 65% chance the match goes over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance both teams find the net.

With Anfield in play and both teams needing points early in the league phase, this match has the ingredients to stay open. The numbers point to a duel with goals at both ends.