Liverpool and Como meet at Anfield with no clear favorite in an even friendly

Anfield hosts another round of Club Friendlies with Liverpool welcoming Como, a matchup that serves as a gauge for two squads still fine-tuning personnel and patterns outside official competition. With no league points on the line, the interest lies in the quality of the rotations, the physical condition of both squads and the first tactical signals ahead of what's to come.

How the two teams arrive

Liverpool has posted two wins and two losses in four matches in this competition, with nine goals scored and nine conceded, an even record that reflects a team still finding its footing. Over the last five matches, the sequence shows one draw, two wins and two losses, a stretch marked more by ups and downs than by any real momentum. Among the club's scorers in the tournament are Alexander Isak and Hugo Ekitike, both with one goal, and the team tends to find the net between the 31st and 45th minutes, right before halftime.

Como, for its part, has played just one match in this competition, drawing for its only result, with one goal scored and one conceded. Its recent form over the last five matches is stronger, though: three wins and two draws, with no losses, suggesting a team in good shape heading into this fixture. Como averages 2 goals scored per match and concedes 1.667 on average, and like its opponent, its best scoring window also falls between the 31st and 45th minutes. Tasos Douvikas is the club's top scorer with four goals, followed by Martin Baturina and Lucas da Cunha, both with three.

Likely lineups

With low reliability based on recent trends, Liverpool could field Giorgi Mamardashvili in goal, with Virgil van Dijk, Jeremie Frimpong, Ifeanyi Ndukwe and Milos Kerkez across the back line. In midfield, Dominik Szoboszlai, Rio Ngumoha, Cody Gakpo, Ryan Gravenberch and Curtis Jones could feature, though this is an estimate drawn from previous matches rather than a confirmed lineup.

On Como's side, with medium reliability, the likely XI would have Jean Butez in goal, a back line of Jacobo Ramon, Marc Oliver Kempf, Alex Valle, Ivan Smolcic and Diego Carlos, and a midfield featuring Maximo Perrone, Assane Diao, Lucas da Cunha and Martin Baturina, with Tasos Douvikas as the attacking reference. Again, this is a probable lineup and not an official one.

Match probabilities

Our model projects the match as even, with a slight lean toward the home side:

The numbers confirm a matchup with no clear favorite: Liverpool's 41% and Como's 35% leave a gap of just six percentage points, while the 24% chance of a draw is not a scenario to rule out. The expected goals figures, an in-house estimate rather than an official statistic, point to an open match with chances for both goalkeepers, in line with the offensive averages both teams have been showing.

Looking ahead to the match

With two teams arriving in different moments of form but with similar offensive numbers, Anfield promises a match with no clear favorite on paper, one where the details in the closing minutes of each half, the window where both sides tend to score, could end up tipping the balance.