Luciano Herrera saves Pumas UNAM with last-gasp equalizer against Necaxa

There were just three minutes left on the clock when Luciano Herrera poked the ball in from close range to make it 1-1 at Estadio Olimpico Universitario. Necaxa had gone ahead through a Julian Carranza header in the 75th minute, but Pumas UNAM found the equalizer just in time to avoid dropping points at home in Liga MX.

The first half was an even exchange of chances without a payoff. Necaxa gave an early warning: in the 3rd minute, Owen Gonzalez tested the keeper from outside the box, and on the same play, Carranza headed a chance that forced a save down to his left. Pumas UNAM answered through Uriel Antuna and Robert Morales, who kept probing around the visitors' box, and Danny Leyva nearly put the away side ahead in the 13th minute with a shot that grazed the crossbar. It was back and forth for the rest of the half, with attempts from Adalberto Carrasquilla, Lorenzo Faravelli and Rodrigo Lopez, but both goalkeepers held firm until the break. The teams went in level at 0-0, with Pumas UNAM already having made two changes: Luciano Herrera and Israel Luna came on for Juninho and Pedro Vite.

The second half kept the same back and forth rhythm, with chances for both sides through Faravelli, Herrera, Israel Luna and Ricardo Monreal, but neither team could break the deadlock. The game finally opened up in the 75th minute: from a corner kick, Emilio Rodriguez whipped in a cross and Carranza rose at the near post to head it into the top corner, putting Necaxa up 1-0. Pumas UNAM refused to fold and, after pushing forward through Robert Morales and Alan Medina, got their reward in the 87th minute: a flicked header from Guillermo Martinez left Luciano Herrera alone in front of goal, and he finished coolly with his left foot to make it 1-1. In stoppage time, which ran five minutes, both Herrera and Antuna had chances to give Pumas UNAM the lead, but the score stayed level until the final whistle.

What the Numbers Say

Pumas UNAM were more persistent in front of goal, but Necaxa had a bit more of the ball and completed more passes overall, a reflection of a game without a clear dominant side.

Pumas UNAM's offensive output also shows up in the post-match expected goals tally: 2.457 to Necaxa's 1.716. Based on the location of their shots, the home side created more to win the game than the final score suggested, though this figure measures what happened on the field rather than a pre-match prediction.

Before kickoff, our projection gave Pumas UNAM a 55% chance of winning, against 21% for Necaxa and 24% for a draw, with expected goals of 1.96 for the home side and 1.16 for the visitors (3.12 combined). The draw ended up being the result, and while the goal output was close to what was forecast in terms of offensive intensity, the final outcome landed on the least likely of the three scenarios.

What the Draw Means in the Standings

With this result, Pumas UNAM stay in ninth place with 8 points from 5 games played (2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss), while Necaxa sit eleventh with 7 points from the same number of games (2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses). The gap between the two sides is just one point, something tonight's match reflected well: an even contest that ended up sharing the points.