Lyon looks to keep perfect start alive against a Le Havre side in need of answers

Lyon arrives with a perfect record and a clean sheet after the opening round of Ligue 1, while Le Havre carries a loss that has left it without a goal to its name. With just one match played on each side, the Groupama Stadium hosts a matchup between two very different starts to the season.

Lyon won its first game 2-0, and that clean sheet currently works out to a 100% rate of matches without conceding. Its goals have tended to arrive between the 61st and 75th minutes, and it already has two names on the scoring chart: Malick Fofana and Noah Nartey, one goal apiece. That said, recent form (which factors in the last five matches and shouldn't be confused with this season's record) paints a choppier picture: two wins, one draw and two losses. Le Havre, meanwhile, fell 0-1 in its debut without scoring, leaving its attack at zero goals per game. Over its last five matches it has posted one win, two draws and two losses, and it tends to look for the goal in the opening 15 minutes, though that hasn't translated into points yet this season.

In the standings, both clubs share the familiar snapshot of an early-season table: with just one match played apiece, Lyon sits fourth with 3 points and Le Havre is fourteenth with none, a gap of 3 points between the two heading into this game. These are positions that still say little about each squad's real level, just the first brushstroke on a table that's only starting to take shape.

The head-to-head record does carry some weight: in 8 previous meetings, Lyon has won 5, there have been 2 draws and Le Havre has won just once, with a combined goal tally of 14 for Lyon against 6 for Le Havre. A gap that also tilts the matchup toward the home side on paper.

Possible lineups

Lyon could field, based on an estimate drawn from its recent matches (low reliability), Dominik Greif in goal; a back four of Ainsley Maitland-Niles, Ruben Kluivert, Abner Vinicius and Moussa Niakhate; a midfield of Corentin Tolisso, Tanner Tessmann and Tyler Morton; and an attacking trio of Lois Openda, Malick Fofana and Ernest Nuamah. On Le Havre's side, with medium reliability, Mory Diaw could start between the posts, a back line with Ayumu Seko, Gautier Lloris and Arouna Sangante, a crowded midfield featuring Fode Doucoure, Yanis Zouaoui, Issa Soumare, Sofiane Boufal and Simon Ebonog, and up front Mbwana Samatta alongside Rassoul Ndiaye. It's worth noting that neither lineup is confirmed.

What the numbers say

Our model calculates the following probabilities for this match:

Lyon is the clear favorite, backed up by expected goals of 1.99 to 0.69 in its favor (an estimated total of 2.68 goals in the match). These figures come from our own model, not betting odds, but they point to a game in which Le Havre would need to swim against the tide to pull off a surprise.

Riding the momentum of an opening game without conceding and with recent history on its side, Lyon starts as the clear favorite at the Groupama Stadium. Le Havre, in need of a response after falling in its first match, will look to slow that momentum and pick up its first points of the season.