Macará looks to overturn home deficit against Santos in Copa Sudamericana round of 16

Macará and Santos meet again at Estadio Bellavista Universidad Indoamérica, this time with the second leg of the round of 16 of the Copa Sudamericana on the line. The clash carries plenty of context: in the first leg, played in Brazil, Santos won 2-1, meaning the Ecuadorian side now needs to flip that script on its own turf to stay alive in the knockout tie.

How the teams arrive

Macará has posted a record of 3 wins, 4 draws and 1 loss in 8 matches played in the tournament, scoring 8 goals and conceding 5. Its recent form is solid: over the last five outings it has racked up three wins, one draw and one loss, and it tends to find the net frequently between the 46th and 60th minutes. Even so, the club has yet to keep a clean sheet all tournament, a concerning detail against an opponent that arrives in attacking mode.

Santos, for its part, sits 14th in the overall standings with a record of 4 wins, 4 draws and 1 loss in 9 matches, backed by a strong output of 18 goals scored and 10 conceded. The club averages 1.496 goals scored and 1.892 goals allowed per match, numbers that point to a team that attacks relentlessly but also gives up goals with some regularity. Over its last five games Santos has three wins, one draw and one loss, and its most productive stretch comes late, between the 76th and 90th minutes. Gabriel Barbosa leads the scoring charts with 8 goals, followed by Neymar with 6 and Álvaro Barreal with 4.

The recent history

The head to head between the two sides so far comes down to that single meeting: the first leg of this very tie, which Santos won 2-1 at home. That result leaves Macará needing to win by at least two goals to force a different outcome, while Santos would be satisfied avoiding a heavy defeat.

Possible lineups

For Macará, the likely lineup (with medium reliability based on recent matches) would feature Rodrigo Rodríguez in goal, a back line with Luis Ayala, Denilson Bolaños and Santiago Etchebarne, and a crowded midfield with Agustín Campana, José Cazares, Jean Estacio, Martín Tello, José Klinger and Matías Miranda, with Franco Posse up front as the attacking reference.

For Santos, with low reliability in the projection, the probable side would include Gabriel Brazão in goal, a back line with Gonzalo Escobar, Gabriel Menino, João Ananias and Willian Arão, and a midfield of Álvaro Barreal, Christian Oliva, João Schmidt, Gabriel Bontempo and Gustavo Caballero, with Gabriel Barbosa leading the line as the striker.

Match probabilities

The model gives a slight edge to Santos with a 40% chance of winning, compared to 28% for Macará and 32% for a draw. These are relatively even numbers that do not point to a clear favorite between the two, though the first leg result gives the Brazilian side an extra cushion. As for expected goals, the model's own estimate puts the match total at 2.25 goals, with 1.25 for Santos and 1 for Macará. This is an in house projection, not a betting line or a closed forecast.

With the tie still open and both teams in need of results, Bellavista Universidad Indoamérica is set for a high tension match, where Macará will need to be ruthless in front of goal if it hopes to overturn the first leg result against a Santos side that knows how to exploit the closing minutes.