Malaga hosts Levante in search of first home points

One goal scored in three matches and seven allowed. With those numbers, Malaga arrives at the bottom of the table for this weekend's clash at La Rosaleda, where the club hosts Levante in LaLiga action. The picture looks tough, and the visitors aren't coming to hand out favors either: Levante sits in the middle of the standings and will be looking for all three points to keep climbing.

Malaga's record in the league stands at zero wins, one draw and two losses, with that tally of one goal for and seven against leaving the club rock bottom in 20th place. Over its last five matches (a sample that also includes fixtures from other rounds), Malaga has managed just one win, two draws and two losses, with a draw as its most recent result before a defeat. Looking at its season trends in LaLiga, both home and away, Malaga averages 0.33 goals scored per match and 2.33 conceded, without a single clean sheet in that three-game sample. Chupe stands out as the team's top scorer there with one goal.

Levante, meanwhile, comes in with a record of one win, one draw and one loss in the league, with five goals for and five against, putting the club in ninth place. In its recent form over the last five matches, Levante has picked up two wins, one draw and two losses, closing out that stretch with a victory. In its own season trends sample (also home and away), Levante averages 1.67 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per match, with 33 percent of matches ending in a clean sheet. Roger Brugue is the team's top scorer in that sample with two goals, followed by Adrian de la Fuente and Jon Ander Olasagasti with one apiece.

The head to head history between the two sides doesn't tilt clearly either way: across eight meetings, Malaga has won two, Levante three, with three draws, and seven goals for the home side against eight for the away side across those matches.

Possible lineups

Malaga's likely starting eleven carries high reliability based on recent matches, with Alfonso Herrero between the posts and a back line where Rafita and Carlos Puga look like fixtures. Up front, Carlos Dotor and Chupe project as the attacking duo, joined in midfield by Joaquin Munoz, Izan Merino, David Larrubia and Dani Lorenzo. On Levante's side, the reliability of the projected lineup is low, though Mathew Ryan in goal and Adrian de la Fuente in defense have featured in each of the last six matches. Ivan Romero looks like the reference point up top, with Jon Ander Olasagasti a fixture in midfield.

What the numbers say

Our model sees this one as fairly even, with a slight edge to the visitors:

These figures point to a wide open forecast with no clear favorite: just four percentage points separate the two sides, and the draw sits close behind at 28 percent. It's worth noting this is our model's own estimate, not a betting line. The over 2.5 goals trend sits at 50 percent, while both teams to score drops to just 11 percent, suggesting that any scoring in this match could end up concentrated on one side.

With Malaga desperate to pick up its first home points of the season and Levante arriving in a more comfortable spot but with no room to relax, La Rosaleda will host a head to head battle this weekend between two very different needs, though both just as pressing.