Morocco hosts Mali in Tangier as the clear favorite on home turf

Stade Ibn-Batouta in Tangier hosts a matchup between two African national teams arriving in very different form. Morocco takes on Mali in a game counting as an International Friendly, one that will let Mohamed Ouahbi keep fine-tuning a squad that has been relentless in attack lately.

The hosts arrive having won three of their last five matches, with one draw and one loss mixed in. That record suggests solidity more than a flawless streak, but one number stands out: in home friendlies in 2025, Morocco is averaging 3.06 goals scored per game and just 0.67 conceded, keeping a clean sheet in 100% of the matches in that sample. Worth noting, that figure comes from only four home games in that competition and shouldn't be confused with the team's overall record. In that same sample, Ismael Saibari shows up as the most frequent scorer with three goals, followed by Neil El Aynaoui and Soufiane Rahimi with two apiece, and the stretch where the home side has struggled most to score has been the final段 of games, between minutes 76 and 90.

Mali, meanwhile, comes in with a shakier recent run: two wins, one draw and two losses in its last five outings. Its seasonal trend sample is minimal, just one match recorded between home and away conditions, so there isn't much to draw from beyond the fact that lone match ended in a clean sheet and that the stretch where the Malian side struggled most was early on, between minutes 0 and 15.

What the head-to-head says

There isn't much history between the two sides: just two previous meetings, with one win for Morocco, one draw and no wins for Mali. In those two matches, Morocco scored three goals to Mali's one, a gap that, even in a small sample, points to a pattern favoring the hosts.

Projected lineups

For Morocco, the projected lineup (medium confidence) features familiar names: Yassine Bounou in goal, a back line with Issa Diop, Noussair Mazraoui, Achraf Hakimi and Anass Salah-Eddine, and a midfield loaded with talent in Neil El Aynaoui, Azzedine Ounahi, Bilal El Khannouss, Brahim Díaz and Ayyoub Bouaddi, with Ismael Saibari leading the attack.

On Mali's side, with lower confidence in the projection, the expected lineup includes Djigui Diarra in goal, Nathan Gassama, Ousmane Camara and Hamari Traoré on defense, a crowded midfield with Aliou Dieng, Mamadou Sangaré, Lassana Coulibaly, Martial Tia, Dorgeles Nene and Kamory Doumbia, and Lassine Sinayoko up front.

What the numbers say

Our model has Morocco as the favorite, though without an overwhelming margin. Here's how the probabilities break down:

Expected goals also tilt in the hosts' favor: 1.22 compared to Mali's 0.40, for an estimated total of 1.61 goals in the match. These are our own projections, not betting odds, and the 33% probability of a draw makes clear that Morocco's edge isn't overwhelming.

With that backdrop, the match should bring plenty of Moroccan possession, with Mali needing to make the most of its chances to keep the result close. It remains to be seen whether Ouahbi sticks with the setup that has worked so well at home or tries out some variations with upcoming matches in mind.