Mexico hosts Peru as heavy favorite in a friendly with an even head-to-head record

Sports Illustrated Stadium hosts a matchup with a distinct Concacaf flavor as Mexico and Peru square off in an International Friendly. Neither side has had the dream start to this window, which adds an extra layer of intrigue to a game that on paper should tilt toward the Mexicans.

Rafael Marquez's team has played just one match so far in this stretch, a 1-1 draw. The recent form looks better, though: over their last five games they've picked up three wins, one draw and one loss. In the 2026 International Friendlies window, home and away combined, Mexico is averaging one goal scored and one conceded per match, with no clean sheets, and their most productive scoring stretch has come between the 61st and 75th minutes, with Gilberto Mora as their top scorer in that sample.

Peru, meanwhile, is going through a tougher stretch. Their record in this window is one loss from their only match played, with one goal scored and four conceded. The recent run hasn't helped either: of their last five matches, Mano Menezes's side won just one, drew one and lost three. In that same 2026 International Friendlies sample, Peru has conceded four goals per match while scoring one, with Gianluca Lapadula as their offensive focal point and a tendency to score early, within the first 15 minutes.

What the head-to-head record says

The history between these two sides shows no clear edge: in four previous meetings there's one win for each side and two draws, with the goal count also even at 2-2. It's a record that suggests a tight contest, even if each team's current form tells a different story.

Probable lineups

For Mexico, the projected XI (medium confidence based on recent lineups) would have Raul Rangel in goal, a back four of Jesus Gallardo, Jorge Sanchez, Johan Vasquez and Cesar Montes, a midfield of Erik Lira, Gilberto Mora and Luis Romo, and up top Roberto Alvarado, Julian Quinones and Raul Jimenez.

Peru, with a probable lineup carrying low confidence, would line up with Pedro Gallese in goal, a back line of Oliver Sonne, Marcos Lopez, Alfonso Barco, Miguel Araujo and Renzo Garces, and in midfield Jairo Velez, Yoshimar Yotun, Jhonny Vidales, Erick Noriega and Andre Carrillo.

What the numbers say

Our model projects a clear edge for the home side, with expected goals of 2.3 for Mexico against 0.62 for Peru, for an estimated total of 2.92 goals in the match.

These numbers mark Mexico as a heavy favorite, though it's worth noting this is our own estimate based on the season's trends, not a definitive prediction or a betting line.

With an even head-to-head record but a present that favors the home side, the match looks like a good opportunity for Mexico to confirm its recent improvement, and for Peru to try to halt a run of form that hasn't been kind to them.