Minnesota United shocks Los Angeles FC with 1-3 win despite being outplayed

Two goals in five minutes were all Minnesota United needed to dismantle Los Angeles Football Club at BMO Stadium. What looked like an even matchup got away from the hosts in the first half and finished 1-3 for the visitors, who took home all three points despite ceding nearly all the possession and a mountain of shots to the home side.

The script called for something else entirely. EnPelotas' preview had given Los Angeles Football Club a 56% chance of winning, against just 19% for Minnesota, with a draw at 25%. The expected goals figures we published had the home side at 1.92 to the visitors' 1.05. The result was the exact opposite of what we projected, and it's worth saying plainly: Minnesota won a game that, on paper, should have given it far more trouble.

How the match broke open

Los Angeles Football Club started the stronger of the two sides, with Igor Jesus causing problems up top and a shot or two that grazed the goal. But in the 28th minute, Joaquin Pereyra popped up in the middle of the box and finished left-footed into the center of the net to make it 0-1. Five minutes later, in the 33rd, the blow landed even harder: Cherrion Valerius connected with his right foot off a headed assist from Kelvin Yeboah to make it 0-2, and the home side had no immediate answer despite chances from Son Heung-Min, Sergi Palencia and Armindo Sieb before the break.

In the second half, Los Angeles Football Club kept pushing with wave after wave of shots (Sergio Vasquez, Mathieu Choiniere, a header from Nkosi Tafari) but ran into the visiting goalkeeper time and again. The knockout blow came in the 80th minute: Pereyra scored his second of the night with a left-footed strike from outside the box that found the right side of the net, making it 0-3. The home side pulled one back in the 89th through Sergio Vasquez, but there was no time left to find more.

The numbers tell a different story

What stands out is that the match stats don't reflect a Minnesota blowout. Quite the opposite: Los Angeles Football Club dominated the game in terms of attacking volume.

With 22 shots to Minnesota's 6, the home side had more than enough material to change the outcome. Our xG estimate, calculated from the shots taken during the match, backs that up: 1.194 for Los Angeles Football Club against 0.911 for Minnesota, a gap that doesn't come close to explaining a 1-3 scoreline. The visitors were more clinical with less: they converted their few scoring chances while the home side squandered theirs.

What the result leaves behind

In the Western Conference, Los Angeles Football Club stays in sixth place with 47 points, while Minnesota United FC sits twelfth with 41, a gap of 6 points between the two. For Minnesota, the win at BMO Stadium counts double: it came on the road against an opponent that, based on everything the game showed, deserved better. For Los Angeles Football Club, there's the sting of having created enough to win and walking away empty handed, a combination that can prove costly in the MLS standings come season's end.