Minnesota United looks to snap losing skid against red-hot West leader St. Louis City SC

Minnesota United has gone five straight matches without a win, dropping three in a row before salvaging two draws, and now faces the second best team in the West. St. Louis City SC rolls into Allianz Field off a run of four wins and a draw in its last five, a gap in form that looms large before kickoff.

The contrast in the West group standings is stark. Minnesota sits in 13th place with 31 points from 29 matches (7 wins, 10 draws and 12 losses, with 44 goals scored and 53 allowed), while St. Louis City SC is second with 51 points from 14 wins, 9 draws and 6 losses in the same number of matches, with 54 goals scored and just 38 allowed. The two clubs are separated by 20 points, which already says plenty about the kind of seasons each is having.

At home so far in the 2026 MLS season, across a sample of 14 matches, Minnesota averages 1.139 goals scored and 1.284 allowed per game, with clean sheets in 29% of those games, and its most productive scoring window falls between the 61st and 75th minutes. Kelvin Yeboah leads the way as the club's top scorer in that span with 16 goals, followed by Anthony Markanich with 8 and Marcus Caldeira with 6. St. Louis City SC, meanwhile, playing on the road over that same 14 game sample, averages 1.429 goals scored and 1.367 allowed, with clean sheets in just 14% of games, and tends to strike earlier, between the 31st and 45th minutes. There, Simon Becher stands out with 9 goals, Rafael Navarro with 7 and Carlo Holse with 6.

A head to head record that clearly favors Minnesota

The series between these two clubs shows a decisive edge for the home side: of 8 matches played, Minnesota has won 6, St. Louis City SC has taken 2, and there have been no draws. On the goal tally, Minnesota has scored 19 to its rival's 11. It's a number that contrasts sharply with where both teams stand today, though it belongs to matches already played, not the one ahead.

Probable lineups

For Minnesota, with medium reliability based on recent lineups, the expected XI features Drake Callender in goal; Michael Boxall, Morris Duggan and Jefferson Díaz across the back line; Wil Trapp, Owen Gene, Anthony Markanich, Tomás Chancalay and Kyle Duncan in midfield; and Kelvin Yeboah alongside Marcus Caldeira up top.

St. Louis City SC, with a projected lineup carrying higher reliability, would send out Roman Bürki between the posts; Timo Baumgartl, Dante Polvara and Fallou Fall in defense; Conrad Wallem, Chris Durkin, Tomas Totland and Daniel Edelman in midfield; and an attacking trio of Alexandru Matan, Carlo Holse and Rafael Navarro.

What the numbers say ahead of kickoff

Our model gives a slight edge to St. Louis City SC, though it doesn't rule out a Minnesota win at home. The probabilities break down as follows:

This is our own estimate based on season trends, not a betting line or a definitive forecast. Expected goals also back up that slight lean toward the visitors: 1.58 for Minnesota versus 1.88 for St. Louis City SC, for an estimated total of 3.46 goals. The model also gives a 56% chance that both teams score and a 43% chance the match goes over 2.5 goals, figures that point to a game with scoring chances at both ends.

With Minnesota looking to snap its home losing streak and St. Louis City SC trying to stay within striking distance of the top of the West, Allianz Field hosts a match between two clubs living very different realities this season.