Montenegro dominates but can't finish: scoreless draw with Armenia includes a red card

Montenegro came into this one in Podgorica as leaders of Group C2, with our projections giving them a 74% chance of winning. They left their own stadium with a 0-0 draw against Armenia that keeps their spot at the top intact, but the result left a bittersweet taste: they controlled the ball, created more danger, and still couldn't find the back of the net, in a match that also ended with a bizarre twist in the closing stretch.

The match, part of the UEFA Nations League, saw Montenegro take total control of possession from the opening whistle. With 64.4% of the ball and nearly double the passes of their opponents, the hosts pushed forward for the full 90 minutes without finding reward. Armenia, meanwhile, gave an early warning: in the 6th minute, Georgi Harutyunyan tried a header off an Artur Serobyan cross, and the home goalkeeper had to stretch to tip it just wide of the top corner.

From there, the match turned into a string of chances without luck. Nikola Krstovic was the most persistent threat on the Montenegrin side: he headed one attempt in the 39th minute and tried again with his right foot in the 54th, both cleared off the line. Stevan Jovetic, who came on at halftime for Viktor Djukanovic, also tested the keeper in the 51st and 74th minutes without success. Armenia answered through Artur Serobyan, who had several looks at goal, and Ugochukwu Iwu, whose shot in the 65th minute grazed the crossbar.

The VAR episode and the red card

With the result still up for grabs, the final stretch produced the most talked about moment of the night. In the 84th minute, VAR stepped in to overturn an initial red card shown to Stefan Loncar, but just a minute later, in the 85th, Loncar was sent off anyway. Montenegro finished the match with ten men, right as the match entered the lengthy six minutes of stoppage time added by the fourth official, with neither side able to tip the balance.

The numbers behind the dominance without reward

The stats reflect a match that was one-sided in territory but even where it mattered most:

The xG figures, calculated after the fact based on shot location, confirm that territorial edge that never turned into a goal: 0.736 for Montenegro against 0.293 for Armenia. A clear gap, but neither number is high enough to suggest clear-cut chances, which lines up with the match producing just one big chance for the home side all night.

What was expected versus what happened

The buildup had been optimistic for Montenegro: beyond the 74% win probability, our projections had the hosts down for 3.08 expected goals against 1.24 for the visitors, a combined total of 4.32 goals. None of that materialized. The match ended scoreless on both sides, a far cry from the attacking script that had been anticipated, a reminder that the Nations League doesn't always follow the preseason script.

What the result means in the standings

The draw doesn't cost Montenegro first place in Group C2: with this result they reach 10 points from 4 matches played, with 3 wins, 1 draw and 0 losses. Armenia, meanwhile, sit on 4 points from their 4 matches (1 win, 1 draw, 2 losses) and remain in third place, 6 points behind tonight's opponent. It's a point that feels like a missed opportunity for Montenegro given what they created, but for Armenia, away from home and digging in gamely, it's a point worth banking in a group where every single one counts.