Monterrey blows two leads, settles for wild 3-3 draw with Tijuana in six-goal thriller

Monterrey went ahead twice on the scoreboard, and twice watched Tijuana pull level. In the end, it finished 3-3 at Estadio BBVA, a result that left the feeling that neither side knew how to close out the match. In Liga MX, the points get shared, and what fans saw was a back and forth six goal affair with Hugo Cuypers and Adonis Preciado driving the action on both sides.

The match opened with an early blow for the home side. Just four minutes in, Jackson Porozo rose unmarked in the box to head home off a corner kick service from Francisco Gonzalez. Monterrey didn't take long to respond: in the 16th minute, a VAR review awarded a penalty for a foul on Cuypers inside the area. The forward himself made no mistake from the spot, leveling things at 1-1 in the 18th minute.

Before the break, in the 44th minute, Cuypers struck again, this time with a low shot that found the corner of the net off an assist from Ricardo Chavez, putting Monterrey up 2-1 right at the close of the first half.

Second half madness

If the first half had delivered three goals, the second half matched its intensity. Barely a few minutes in, in the 48th minute, Adonis Preciado equalized for Tijuana with a close range header off a cross from Rafael Fernandez. Monterrey answered quickly again: in the 56th minute, Lucas Ocampos finished with his right foot into the top corner, set up by Oliver Torres, making it 3-2. But the lead lasted just three minutes: in the 59th minute, Preciado completed his brace with a shot that beat Andrada off a through ball from Ignacio Rivero, setting the final score.

From there, the scoreline held despite Monterrey's repeated pushes in stoppage time, with shots from Cuypers, Luca Orellano and Stefan Medina all failing to find the net.

What the numbers say

The stats make the gap in control clear, even if not in final efficiency. Monterrey controlled possession, generated far more shot volume and fired off roughly four times as many attempts as its rival, but Tijuana converted nearly every time it threatened.

According to our own estimate calculated from the match's shots, Monterrey generated 2.569 expected goals compared to Tijuana's 1.275, a gap that confirms the home side's offensive dominance even though the final score ended level.

Ahead of the match, we had projected a 49% chance of a Monterrey win, a 26% chance of a draw and a 25% chance for Tijuana, with a combined expected goals total of 2.96 between both sides (1.75 for the home team and 1.21 for the visitors). The actual result turned out to be the least likely of the three outcomes by those numbers, though the six total goals blew past anything we had anticipated.

Where it leaves the standings

The draw leaves Monterrey in eighth place with 21 points from 14 matches played (six wins, three draws and five losses), while Tijuana sits sixth with 22 points from 15 matches (five wins, seven draws and three losses). Just one point separates the two sides in the table, a fairly accurate reflection of how even the match ended up being on the field.

With this result, Monterrey adds another draw to its tally in a tournament where it hasn't quite found its footing, while Tijuana leaves Estadio BBVA with a point that, given its opponent's control of the game, can feel almost like a win.