Monterrey and Pachuca Fight to Escape the Bottom of the Table in Even Matchup at Estadio BBVA

Monterrey and Pachuca meet at the Estadio BBVA in a clash of the needy: just one point separates the two sides in the Liga MX standings, and neither has managed to pull away in recent weeks. Matias Almeyda's Monterrey sits in 10th place, while Pachuca, led by Benjamin Mora, is just one spot below in 11th. It's not a final, but it is a direct matchup between two teams looking to climb out of the lower half of the table.

Monterrey arrives with a record of 4 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses in 10 games, with 17 goals scored and 15 allowed. The recent snapshot, though, isn't quite as encouraging: over its last five matches, the club has managed just one win, two draws and two losses. Pachuca, meanwhile, has gone 3-4-4 in 11 matches (18 goals scored, 14 allowed), though it comes in with better momentum: two wins, two draws and one loss in its last five outings.

It's also worth looking at how each side performs in its usual setting, even if the sample is different: playing at home in this same Liga MX season in 2026, Monterrey has averaged 2.2 goals scored and 1.2 allowed per game over its last five matches as host, keeping a clean sheet 40% of the time, and tends to score more often in the opening 15 minutes. Pachuca, on the road, shows an average of 1.5 goals scored and just 0.495 allowed per game in that same competition and season over its last six away matches, with 50% of those road trips ending in a shutout, and its best scoring stretch coming between the 76th and 90th minutes.

What the Head to Head Says

The two sides have already faced off 8 times, with an even split: 4 wins for Monterrey and 4 for Pachuca, with no draws along the way. In terms of scoring, Pachuca actually holds a slight edge overall: 14 goals to Monterrey's 12. It's a history that offers no clear favorite.

Probable Lineups

For this match, Monterrey's likely starting eleven (rated high confidence based on recent matches) would have Esteban Andrada in goal, a back line of Ricardo Chavez, Carlos Salcedo, Victor Guzman and Gerardo Arteaga, a midfield of Jesus Corona, Oliver Torres, Orbelin Pineda and Diego Rossi, and up top Hugo Cuypers and Lucas Ocampos, who has been the team's top scorer at home in the sample cited with 5 goals, followed by Cuypers and Rossi himself with 3 apiece.

Pachuca, with an estimated lineup rated medium confidence, would likely field Carlos Moreno in goal, a back line of Francisco Venegas, Sergio Barreto, Eduardo Bauermann and Carlos Sanchez, a midfield of Christian Rivera, Oussama Idrissi, Sergio Rodriguez, Alan Bautista and Kenedy, with Salomon Rondon as the attacking focal point. Rondon has been, by a wide margin, the visitors' top scoring threat on the road in this sample, with 12 goals compared to 1 each for Bautista and Moreno.

What Do the Odds Say?

Our model points to an even matchup, with no overwhelming favorite:

Monterrey holds a slight edge from playing at home, but the gap with Pachuca isn't large, and the draw still carries considerable weight. Expected goals tell a similar story: 1.50 for the home side against 1.24 for the visitors, for an estimated total of 2.74. On top of that, there's a 53% chance both teams score, and a 47% chance the match goes over 2.5 goals. All of this is our own estimate, not a betting line.

With the table so tight in the lower half, any slip up carries weight. Monterrey needs to rediscover its winning form at home, while Pachuca arrives hoping to ride its strong away form to another positive result.