Montreal storms back with a ten-minute blitz to sink Cincinnati 3-1

CF Montreal feasted at Stade Saputo, beating FC Cincinnati 3-1 in an MLS match that got complicated for the home side the moment Cincinnati equalized, but which Montreal ultimately settled with a lethal ten-minute stretch in the second half. Daniel Rios, Prince Owusu, who scored twice, and a penalty that was rightly awarded gave Montreal a win that, on paper, was far from the likeliest outcome.

The first half belonged entirely to the home side. In the 24th minute, Daniel Rios finished with his left foot from the center of the box to make it 1-0, capping an opening stretch in which Montreal had created more danger through Fabian Herbers and Victor Loturi buzzing around the opposing area. Cincinnati, with Evander and Gerardo Valenzuela as their main creative outlets, couldn't find a way through and went into the break trailing on the scoreboard.

Cincinnati's response and the late blitz

The second half was a different story. Tom Barlow popped up from close range to make it 1-1 in the 63rd minute, assisted by Valenzuela, and everything pointed to Cincinnati at least grabbing a point in Montreal. Kenji Mboma Dem even rattled the post with a header shortly after, on the play right before the moment that changed everything.

Because on that very same sequence, in the 69th minute, Roman Celentano brought down Prince Owusu inside the box and was shown a yellow card for the foul. Owusu made no mistake from the penalty spot in the 71st minute to make it 2-1, and just three minutes later, in the 74th, Owusu struck again for the 3-1, this time set up by Daniel Rios. In the space of ten minutes, the match went from wide open to all but decided.

Cincinnati kept pushing until the final whistle: Barlow had two more clear looks, a shot that clipped the crossbar and a header that sailed over, but Jonathan Sirois' goal didn't budge again.

What the numbers show

The stats reflect an even contest in which Cincinnati had more of the ball, but Montreal was more clinical when it mattered most.

According to our post-match estimate based on shot location, the match xG finished at 2.40 for Montreal and 2.96 for Cincinnati, a gap that confirms the visitors generated more offensive volume but lacked sharpness at the right moments, while Montreal was more surgical with the little it had.

The result also runs counter to what we projected beforehand: we gave Cincinnati a 46% chance of winning, versus just 30% for Montreal (24% for a draw), with expected goals of 2.01 for the visitors against 1.61 for the home side. The pitch said the exact opposite, and the final score ended up wider than any of those numbers suggested.

What it means in the standings

In the Eastern Conference, the win doesn't reshuffle the picture too much for Montreal, who entered the match in 15th place with 24 points from 27 games played (6 wins, 6 draws and 15 losses). Cincinnati, meanwhile, sat ten spots higher, in 10th place with 33 points from 26 games (8 wins, 9 draws and 9 losses). The gap between the two clubs in the table stood at 9 points before this match, and the loss leaves Cincinnati with work to do to avoid losing ground in the middle of the conference.

For Montreal, the night will go down as one of those wins that arrive when least expected: against an opponent that controlled long stretches of the match but ran into Owusu and company's efficiency during a decisive fifteen-minute span.