Napoli looks to snap losing skid against unbeaten Frosinone at the Maradona

Napoli heads into this matchup having lost three straight games before salvaging a draw in its most recent outing, while Frosinone arrives at the Diego Armando Maradona Stadium unbeaten in its last five matches. The clash, part of Serie A, pits together two teams that, despite that difference in form, sit just 3 points apart in the standings.

The Naples side sits ninth with 7 points, the product of 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses in 5 matches played, with 7 goals scored and 6 allowed. Its recent form is the real cause for concern: three losses in the last five matches and just one win in that stretch. Frosinone, meanwhile, sits sixth with 10 points (3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss), 9 goals scored and 4 allowed, and arrives having won three and drawn two of its last five matches, without a single loss in that span.

Looking at trends from the current Serie A season, Napoli averages 1.4 goals scored and 1.2 allowed per match both home and away, keeping a clean sheet in 40% of its games, with its most productive scoring window falling between the 16th and 30th minutes. Rasmus Hojlund stands out as the team's top scoring threat in that sample, with 2 goals, followed by Kevin De Bruyne and Antonio Vergara with one apiece. Frosinone, in the same competition and under the same home/away criteria, averages 1.8 goals scored and 0.8 allowed, also posting a clean sheet rate of 40%, and tends to score more often between the 31st and 45th minutes; Antonio Raimondo leads that sample with 4 goals, with Giorgi Kvernadze adding 3.

A head-to-head record that clearly favors Napoli

The history between these two sides backs the home team: of the 7 matches played, Napoli has won 5, there has been 1 draw and Frosinone has won once, with a combined goal tally of 20 for Napoli against 8 for Frosinone.

The probable lineups

For this match, Massimiliano Allegri's Napoli could take the field with Alex Meret in goal, a back line of Giovanni Di Lorenzo, Amir Rrahmani, Rafa Marin and Mathias Olivera, a midfield of Stanislav Lobotka, Matteo Politano, Kevin De Bruyne and Billy Gilmour, and Rasmus Hojlund leading the attack. This lineup is projected from the team's recent matches, carrying medium reliability, and is not a confirmed squad.

On Frosinone's side, led by Massimiliano Alvini, the probable lineup would feature Lorenzo Palmisani in goal, a defense of Gabriele Calvani, Gabriele Bracaglia, Anthony Oyono and Ilario Monterisi, a midfield of Giacomo Calo, Romano Schmid, Giorgi Kvernadze, Patrizio Masini and Seydou Fini, with Antonio Raimondo up front. This too is an estimate, not an official lineup.

What the numbers say before kickoff

The model gives Napoli a clear edge as the home side, though it doesn't rule out Frosinone: a draw sits close to 27%, and the visitors retain a 17% chance. In expected goals, our own projection puts Napoli at 1.67 and Frosinone at 0.84, for a combined total of 2.51. The calculated trends also suggest both teams will find the net in 80% of scenarios, while a match with more than 2.5 goals is projected at 40%. It's worth noting these figures come from our own projection model and are not betting odds.

With Napoli needing to turn around its recent rough patch and Frosinone arriving unbeaten in its last several matches, the Maradona has all the makings of a tight contest on paper, even if history and the model both lean toward the home side.