Nashville looks to extend winning streak against a stumbling NYCFC

Yankee Stadium hosts a matchup that says a lot about how this MLS season has unfolded: New York City FC, seventh in the East, against a Nashville SC side sitting alone atop the league with 16 wins in 22 matches. The gap in the standings sits at 24 points, making the favorite clear on paper, though the field usually has other ideas.

Each club's current form tells a different story. NYCFC has dropped three straight losses before picking up two draws in its last five outings, with no wins in that stretch. Its league record stands at 7 wins, 7 draws and 8 losses in 22 matches, with 36 goals scored and 31 allowed, numbers close enough to keep the club in the lower-middle of the table. Nashville, on the other hand, comes in off four wins in its last five games (with just one loss in that span), and its season record is dominant: 16 wins, 4 draws and only 2 losses, with 47 goals scored and just 17 allowed.

Looking at NYCFC's home performance in the 2026 MLS season (a sample of 11 matches), the club averages 2.28 goals scored and 1.64 allowed per game, with clean sheets in just 18% of matches and its most productive stretch coming between the 16th and 30th minutes. Nashville, meanwhile, in its road sample for the same season (10 matches), averages 1.10 goals scored and just 0.51 allowed, with a striking 60% clean sheet rate and its best scoring run between the 31st and 45th minutes. These numbers come from different contexts, but they paint the picture of a Nashville side that's rock solid away from home and an NYCFC team that creates chances but also struggles defensively at its own stadium.

As for standout names this season, Nicolas Fernandez Mercau leads NYCFC's home attack with 14 goals in that sample, while Sam Surridge (13) and Hany Mukhtar (10) top Nashville's production on the road.

What the head-to-head says

The all-time series is even: 8 matches, with 3 wins for each side and 2 draws, and even the goal tally is level at 10 apiece. There's no clear dominant side in this matchup.

Projected lineups

NYCFC's likely starting eleven, with moderate reliability based on recent matches, would have Matt Freese in goal, a back line of James Sands, Nico Cavallo, Tayvon Gray and Max Murray, a midfield of Andres Perea, Nicolas Fernandez Mercau and Keaton Parks, and up top Agustin Ojeda, Benie Traore and Luighi. On Nashville's side, with lower confidence in the projection, the lineup could feature Brian Schwake in net, a back line of Maxwell Woledzi, Jeisson Palacios, Andy Najar and Reed Baker-Whiting, a midfield of Cristian Espinoza, Elias Saad, Edvard Tagseth and Matthew Corcoran, and the attacking duo of Hany Mukhtar and Sam Surridge.

Our model, which is an in-house estimate and not a betting line, has Nashville as the favorite at 43%, though without an overwhelming edge: the draw sits close behind at nearly 30%, and the home side isn't far off at 27%. The expected goals are tight as well, 1.06 for NYCFC against 1.38 for Nashville, a combined total of 2.44 that lines up with a 51% probability of more than 2.5 goals and a 55% chance both teams find the net.

With Nashville looking to extend its strong run on the road and NYCFC in need of snapping its winless streak, Yankee Stadium has the makings of a much tighter contest than the gap in the standings suggests.