Nashville SC Looks to Extend 26-Point Lead at Top as Columbus Crew Come to Town

The Eastern Conference leader welcomes a rival that badly needs points. Nashville SC, sitting first in the table, opens the gates of GEODIS Park to Columbus Crew in an MLS matchup where the gap in form and standings is stark, though soccer always leaves room for a surprise.

How They Arrive

Nashville SC sits atop the East group in commanding fashion: 20 games played, 14 wins, 4 draws and just 2 losses, with 40 goals scored and only 15 allowed. The attack averages 2.9 goals per game and the defense concedes just 1 per match, with clean sheets in 30% of games. Over the last five matches Nashville has racked up three wins and two losses, closing out the stretch with back-to-back victories. Sam Surridge leads the attack with 12 goals, followed by Hany Mukhtar with 8 and Warren Madrigal with 5.

Columbus Crew is having a very different season: the club sits 12th in the East group, with 5 wins, 5 draws and 10 losses in 20 games, a negative goal differential (28 scored, 33 allowed) and not a single clean sheet in its recent stretch of matches. Its scoring output has dropped to 1.5 goals per game, while it concedes 2.2 on average. Its last five games showed mixed results: two wins and a draw to start, followed by two straight losses to close it out. Wessam Abou Ali is the club's top scorer with 5 goals. The gap between the two sides in the standings is 26 points, a clear reflection of two opposite seasons.

Head to Head

History also favors Nashville: of the 8 meetings between the two clubs, the home side has won 4, there have been 2 draws and Columbus has won twice. In terms of goals, Nashville has scored 12 to Columbus' 9, a scoring trend that lines up with where both clubs stand today.

Projected Lineups

Nashville SC could line up with Brian Schwake in goal; a back line of Maxwell Woledzi, Reed Baker-Whiting, Daniel Lovitz and Jack Maher; a midfield featuring Elias Saad, Matthew Corcoran, Edvard Tagseth, Hany Mukhtar and Shak Mohammed; and Sam Surridge leading the line up top. This is a projected lineup, drawn from recent matches and carrying a low confidence level based on the team's own data.

On the Columbus Crew side, the estimated starting eleven would have Patrick Schulte between the posts; a defense of Sean Zawadzki, Malte Amundsen, Rudy Camacho and Steven Moreira; a midfield of Taha Habroune, Dylan Chambost, Andres Gomes, Mohamed Farsi and Tarun Karumanchi; and Daniel Gazdag up front. As with the home side, this lineup is a projection, not an official confirmation.

Match Probabilities

EnPelotas' own model gives Nashville SC a clear edge with a 65% chance of winning, compared to 19% for a draw and just 16% for a visiting win. That's a considerable gap, one that lines up with the contrast in how each club has performed this season. Expected goals back up that forecast too: 2.55 for the home side against 1.25 for the visitors, an in-house estimate rather than a betting line. Additional trends point to an open game: an 85% chance of more than 2.5 total goals and a 90% chance both teams find the net.

With the conference's best attack facing the leakiest defense among its direct rivals, everything points to a game with goals at both ends at GEODIS Park, though Nashville SC remains the clear favorite to hold onto first place.