Necaxa and Cruz Azul Look to Break Out of Their Rut at Estadio Victoria

Necaxa and Cruz Azul square off at Estadio Victoria in a matchup between two teams that badly need a result: just one point separates them in the Liga MX standings, where they sit 11th and 12th respectively. Neither side has managed to get going so far this tournament, and this direct meeting is a chance for one of them to put some distance between itself and the bottom of the table.

Necaxa arrives with a record of 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses in 5 matches played, scoring 7 goals and conceding 8. Things haven't been much better over the last five games either: just one win, one draw and three losses, including a stretch of two straight defeats before salvaging a draw in their most recent outing. Offensively, they lean heavily on Julian Carranza, who has scored 4 of the team's 7 goals, and they tend to find the net late, mostly between the 76th and 90th minutes.

Cruz Azul isn't in any better shape. They've also picked up 2 wins, but with no draws and 3 losses in their 5 outings, scoring 8 goals while allowing 10. The recent trend is worrying: after opening with two straight wins, they've now dropped three in a row. Nicolas Ibanez and Jeremy Marquez share the team scoring lead with 2 goals apiece, and interestingly, Cruz Azul also tends to score late, in that same 76th to 90th minute window.

The head-to-head record clearly favors Cruz Azul: of 8 meetings, they've won 5, drawn 1 and lost 2, with a lopsided goal difference of 16 for and 7 against Necaxa. That's worth keeping in mind, though the current form of both clubs is a far cry from those numbers.

Likely Lineups

For Necaxa, the projected starting eleven (with low confidence according to our projections) would have Luis Jimenez in goal, a back three of Alexis Pena, Kaiky Naves and Agustin Oliveros, and a crowded midfield featuring Danny Leyva, Lorenzo Faravelli, Carlos Vargas, Ricardo Monreal and Matias Espindola, supporting Julian Carranza and Javier Ruiz up top.

Cruz Azul, with a medium confidence rating, projects to line up with Kevin Mier between the posts; a deep back line of Jeremy Marquez, Jesus Orozco, Omar Campos, Willer Ditta, Jose Paradela and Gonzalo Piovi; a midfield of Carlos Rodriguez, Agustin Palavecino and Erik Lira; and Nicolas Ibanez leading the attack.

What the Numbers Say

Our model has Cruz Azul as the favorite, though not by an overwhelming margin:

It's a clear read, though not a decisive one: Cruz Azul starts out with half the probability, while a draw and a Necaxa win split the rest evenly. As for expected goals, our own projection has it at 1.28 for Necaxa and 1.86 for Cruz Azul, a combined 3.14 that backs up the trends: a 90% chance the match goes over 2.5 goals and an 80% chance both teams find the net. It's worth noting these figures come from our own model and aren't sportsbook odds.

With both defenses showing cracks and both teams needing points to stop their slide down the table, everything points to an open game at Estadio Victoria, with goals likely on both ends.